Aren’t all relief pitchers just failed starters?
In Billy Wagner’s case, the answer is a definite no.
The power-packed left-hander never started a game in his major league career (though he did almost exclusively in the minors). Perhaps Wagner could have been an MLB starter … if he hadn’t been so effective out of the bullpen.
The No. 12 overall pick by the Houston Astros in 1993 out of Ferrum College in Virginia, Wagner threw exceptionally hard, especially for someone only 5-foot-10 and 180 pounds. After reaching the majors in 1996, he began dominating hitters almost immediately and quickly became the team’s closer. He earned the first of his seven All-Star nods in 1999 – when he posted a stellar 1.57 ERA with 39 saves and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting.
Wagner pitched in Houston for nine seasons, becoming the franchise’s all-time saves leader, before being traded to Philadelphia in 2004. He was later an All-Star with the Phillies, Mets and Braves before ending his career after the 2010 season.
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Over his 16 years in the majors, Wagner had a 2.31 ERA, with 422 saves and 1,196 strikeouts in 903 innings. Will that be good enough to get him a ticket to Cooperstown in his final year on the BBWAA ballot?
Why Wagner belongs in the Hall
If there’s one word that best describes Billy Wagner, it’s overpowering.
He was one of the best in baseball history at striking batters out and limiting hard contact. Among all pitchers with at least 900 major league innings, Wagner is No. 1 all-time in BOTH strikeouts (11.9) and hits allowed (6.0) per inning.
That kind of dominance made him a consistent weapon at the back end of the bullpen – particularly between 1997 and 2008, when he posted an ERA under 3.00 and at least 20 saves in 11 of those 12 seasons.
With seven All-Star appearances, Wagner matches Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman. His rate stats are even better, though Hoffman had 153 more appearances and 179 more saves. In terms of WAR, Wagner (27.7) and Hoffman (28.0) are virtually identical.
The case against Wagner
The most common measuring stick for relief pitchers is the number of saves. Hall members Hoffman (601) and Mariano Rivera (652) are far and away the all-time leaders, with Wagner considerably further behind in eighth place (422) – trailing active relievers Kenley Jansen (447) and Craig Kimbrel (440) and current ballotmate Francisco Rodriguez (437).
There’s also the question of how important anyone who’s only in the game for one inning every other day really is. Does Wagner deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter?
Lastly, Wagner doesn’t really have a signature moment that defines his career. His teams won only one of eight playoff series, and Wagner didn’t help matters much.
In 11 ⅔ postseason innings, he allowed 21 hits and 13 earned runs (10.03 ERA).
Voting trends
According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, Wagner has been named on 84.7% of the ballots publicly revealed as of Jan. 16.
Wagner has seen his candidacy gain significant momentum over the past few years as the extremely crowded ballots have begun to thin out and his qualifications have been more closely evaluated.
2016: 10.5%
2017: 10.2%
2018: 11.1%
2019: 16.7%
2020: 31.7%
2021: 46.4%
2022: 51.0%
2023: 68.1%
2024: 73.8%
Realistic outlook
The leading returning vote-getter on the 2025 ballot, Wagner seems like a sure bet to gain entrance to Cooperstown in his final year of eligibility.
Although it’s taken a while for the voters to fully appreciate Wagner’s greatness, the numbers show just how dominant he was over an extended period. With only a select few true relievers in the Hall, Wagner deserves a place among the very best.
(All statistics, including WAR, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com)
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