In terms of pure unpredictability and variety of possible outcomes with two weeks left until conference championship weekend, no Power Four league can match the Big 12.
After No. 15 Brigham Young’s loss to Kansas, there’s even a scenario that has Baylor playing for the conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Yes, Baylor, which lost three in a row to open Big 12 play but is riding a four-game winning streak into Saturday’s game at Houston.
Things are getting clearer in the ACC, Big Ten and even the SEC. We’re down to three contenders in the ACC, with the possibility the race is decided this weekend. Likewise in the Big Ten, where No. 5 Indiana could secure a date with No. 1 Oregon by beating No. 2 Ohio State.
Here’s the current state of the Power Four race entering Week 13:
ACC
Contenders: No. 12 SMU (6-0), No. 16 Clemson (7-1), No. 10 Miami (5-1).
Clemson sits in the clubhouse with one conference loss, needing Miami to drop one of two against Wake Forest and Syracuse to reach the ACC championship game. Should Miami win out, the Hurricanes will nudge ahead of Clemson because of the common-opponent result against Louisville. SMU and Miami will meet in the case that all three teams have just one league loss, again because of the Louisville result.
That means the only way SMU gets bounced is by losing to both Virginia and California. If Miami loses once and the Mustangs lose twice, the Hurricanes will face Clemson because of a better overall record against common opponents.
In other words, SMU can clinch an ACC championship game berth with a win on Saturday against the Cavaliers.
WEEKEND FORECAST: Week 13 college football picks for every Top 25 game
PLAYOFF PREDICTION: Colorado enters field, Alabama grabs first-round bye
Big 12
Contenders: Brigham Young (6-1), No. 18 Colorado (6-1), No. 22 Arizona State (5-2), No. 21 Iowa State (5-2), Baylor (4-3).
We’ll have to wait one more week to get real clarity in the Big 12.
BYU meets Arizona State and can take a big step toward earning a spot in the title game with a win. Likewise with Colorado and its matchup at Kansas. In fact, the race could be settled by Sunday: BYU can clinch with a win and an Iowa State loss to Utah, and Colorado can clinch with a victory combined with wins by BYU and Iowa State.
Here’s where things get tricky. Arizona State gets in by winning out unless Colorado and Iowa State win out and BYU loses the finale against Houston. Iowa State are in by beating Utah and Kansas State along with a loss one of these next two weeks by BYU and Colorado.
Yes, there’s even a convoluted way for Baylor to beat Houston and Kansas and play for the conference championship. Here’s how that goes:
Start with this Saturday. Arizona State beats BYU. Colorado beats Kansas. Iowa State beats Utah. Kansas State beats Cincinnati. Texas Tech tops Oklahoma State. TCU beats Arizona. West Virginia beats Central Florida.
Next weekend, the Bears would need UCF to win against Utah, Colorado to beat Oklahoma State, Arizona to beat rival Arizona State, Houston to beat BYU, TCU to beat Cincinnati, Kansas State to beat Iowa State and Texas Tech to beat WVU.
That would leave Colorado in sole possession of first place and an eight-way tie for second. In this scenario, Baylor rises to the top by comparing records against common opponents or combined conference opponent winning percentage.
Big Ten
Contenders: Oregon (8-0), Indiana (7-0), Ohio State (6-1), No. 4 Penn State (6-1).
Oregon has clinched a seat in the Big Ten title game, the league announced on Tuesday. The other spot could be determined on Saturday. Indiana will meet the Ducks with a win at Ohio State, since the Hoosiers will also edge past Penn State by virtue of the common-opponent comparison against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State isn’t in with a win. It can secure that spot then following that victory with a defeath of Michigan or with a loss to the Wolverines combined with losses by Indiana to Purdue and the Penn State to Maryland. Penn State’s path to playing Oregon requires the Nittany Lions to win out while beats Indiana and loses to Michigan.
In terms of placing all four teams in the playoff, the Big Ten’s dream scenario would be for Indiana to lose a very competitive game to Ohio State, which then win against Michigan. The Buckeyes would be in the field regardless of what happens in the rematch with Oregon in the conference championship game, while Indiana and Penn State make the cut by having just one close loss to one of the top-ranked teams in the country.
SEC
Contenders: No. 3 Texas (5-1), No. 14 Texas A&M (5-1), No. 10 Georgia (6-2), No. 7 Alabama (4-2), No. 9 Mississippi (4-2).
Losses this past weekend by LSU and Missouri have cut the list of eligible SEC teams to five. Should Texas and Texas A&M win this weekend against Kentucky and Auburn, respectively, their rivalry game to end November will send the winner to the conference championship game as the only SEC team with only one conference loss.
Alabama is the winner in the case of a four-way tie for second involving teams with two league losses. Should A&M finish 7-1, the Crimson Tide would advance to meet the Aggies by virtue of owning the best conference opponent winning percentage in conference play. Heading into Saturday, Alabama’s opponents are a combined 27-26 in the SEC, ahead of the Bulldogs (23-28), Volunteers (23-28), Rebels (22-33) and Longhorns (21-32).
One loss would eliminate the Tide. In that case, Georgia would meet the winner of Texas and A&M. That’s because the Bulldogs would have a better record against common opponents than Ole Miss and would have head-to-head tiebreakers against Tennessee and Texas.
A&M can still play for the championship with another Alabama loss and a loss to Texas, should the Longhorns lose to Kentucky. In that case of this five-way tie at 6-2, the Aggies and Bulldogs would meet by virtue of owning the two best conference opponent winning percentage.
Ole Miss needs some help. To play for the conference title, the Rebels need A&M to win out, Alabama to lose once, Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt and Texas to lose twice. That would leave the Rebels tied with Georgia at 6-2 in conference play and send them to Atlanta because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Tennessee has not been officially ruled out, but the path for the Volunteers to play in Atlanta does not appear to be possible.