With Major League Baseball’s draft looming in a little more than a month, it’s evident that selection Sunday will be volatile right up to the point commissioner Rob Manfred officially marries player with team from the dais of Atlanta’s Roxy Theater.
While the lack of a consensus No. 1 – let alone a top 5, 10, 20 – will rob the proceedings of a Paul Skenes-like anointment, the Choose Your Own Adventure element of this selection meeting should be evident throughout the first round.
With only the College World Series remaining among amateur competition and MLB’s Draft League revving up, USA TODAY Sports takes aim its second mock draft:
1. Washington Nationals: Ethan Holliday, INF, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
He’s not No. 1 with a bullet. Yet it’s difficult to justify moving Holliday off here even as there’s plenty of smoke around 1/1 alternatives. The crop of majors-ready arms did little to harm their stock in the postseason. Seth Hernandez may possess the dudeliest arm out there. Eli Willits visited Nationals Park last week. But we’re not yet prepared to envision a world where someone other than Holliday kicks off this chain reaction. Stay tuned.
2. Los Angeles Angels: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
In the name of consistency, we’re keeping Arnold at 2, even as fellow college lefties Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson lurk. While both may possess greater upside and miss more bats, Arnold has shown an ability to get deep in games against elite competition, and better fits the “now” ethos of the Angels’ recent draft history.
3. Seattle Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
At the risk of getting too static, it’s nonetheless tough to move this 6-foot-5, 220-pound shortstop specimen out of the three hole, particularly with plenty of elite college arms the Mariners develop so well available. But it’s also tough to pass on a potential 10-year cog in a lineup that needs one.
4. Colorado Rockies: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS
Kinda wild that two legacy players who squared off throughout high school will affect the other’s fate so much. It’s not that the Rockies face a Holliday/Willits binary when they’re on the clock, but in this simulation, taking a potential cornerstone who doesn’t turn 18 until December will be too tough for the need-everything Rockies to bypass.
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
The Cardinals are almost guaranteed to get one of the elite college lefties and in this universe, it’s Anderson, who has sparred with Doyle for the NCAA strikeout lead all year and will take his 163 punchouts in 103 innings into at least one more start, in Omaha.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
Volatility, thy name is Seth. Who wouldn’t want a 6-foot-4 high schooler whose fastball sits in the high 90s with advanced secondary offerings and has dominated against elite prep competition? Yet the trepidation of “high school right-hander draft history” may be a headwind all the way up to Manfred’s stroll to the podium. Still, this figures to be the floor, or close to it, for a fireballer on the periphery of the 1/1 conversation.
7. Miami Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS
It’s the 909’s time to shine, with a pair of Panthers popped in succession. The Marlins stumble upon a nice building block here, as Carlson’s elite arm and bat speed will get him to Miami’s infield quicker than most prep draftees.
8. Toronto Blue Jays: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
While there are a few spoilers out there, this looks like the top eight, in one order or another. In this scenario, Doyle tumbles a bit; like Hernandez, his wait could be much shorter on July 13.
9. Cincinnati Reds: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns… Witherspoon? Sounds like the makings of a nice rotation thanks to draft capital spent on advanced college arms. The math checks out that an arm of that ilk will be available. Witherspoon cut his walk rate nearly in half – from 14.2% to 7.2% – making his high-upside and unpredictive repertoire even more effective.
10. Chicago White Sox: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
From 1/1 favorite to who knows, LaViolette’s slide stops with the White Sox, whose revamped hitting program could be the panacea for a slugger whose platform junior year fizzled. LaViolette regressed from .305, 29 homers, 1.175 OPS to .257, 18 and 1.003, and his K rate nudged upward, to 25.2.
11. Athletics: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
The glut of prep shortstops are all still on this board, but the Athletics opt for a guy who can impact their lineup before they depart Yolo County for Las Vegas. A nice infield complement to shoo-in Rookie of the Year Jacob Wilson.
12. Texas Rangers: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson (Texas) HS
The Rangers amble down I-35 for their choice, a mature high school bat with solid Team USA bona fides and a commitment to Texas. Let the run on prep shortstops begin.
13. San Francisco Giants: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
Parker could easily be gone by now, but his power from a premier position at a young age is too much for the Giants to bypass here in the first draft overseen by the Buster Posey regime.
14. Tampa Bay Rays: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS
He doesn’t turn 18 until a week after the draft and has significant power potential and all-around athletic ability that guarantees he’ll play somewhere up the middle, a versatile skill set the Rays value.
15. Boston Red Sox: Gavin Kilen, INF, Tennessee
A 13th-round Red Sox draftee out of high school, Kilen leveled up at Louisville and then with the Vols, with whom he slugged 15 homers with a 1.112 OPS this season. Struck out just 27 times in 245 plate appearances, a solid K rate given the elite level of pitching in the SEC.
16. Minnesota Twins: Tyler Bremner, LHP, UC Santa Barbara
Bremner probably shouldn’t be slept on to this extent; a consensus top five pick a few months ago, he started slowly but posted double-digit strikeout games in six of his final seven starts, and is a nice value here.
17. Chicago Cubs: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Sure, Arquette owns the title of “Best Hawaiian Shortstop In the College World Series,” but Aloy looks up to few of his peers. The SEC player of the year slugged 20 home runs and is sound enough defensively to stick at shortstop.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek (Ga.) HS
The Georgia commit is advanced in both age – he turns 19 in August – and acumen, though there remains some power upside.
19. Baltimore Orioles: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
Until proven otherwise, the Orioles stick with their advanced college bat template in the first round, with Conrad flying under the radar thanks to season-ending shoulder injury after an outfield dive. Before he got hurt, Conrad was raking (.372/.495/.744 in 97 plate appearances) for the Demon Deacons.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Another club that tends to lean college bat, the Brewers get a nice piece in Irish, whose .364, 19-homer platform season looks even better if he sticks at catcher professionally. But Irish caught just 12 games for the Tigers this year, spending 45 games in the outfield.
21. Houston Astros: Andrew Fischer, INF, Tennessee
This is perhaps too much helium for Fischer, whose physical profile may not support the sort of power to slug as a first baseman might be expected at the big league level. But there’s still onramp for Fischer to establish himself at another infield position and the Astros can figure that out as he builds off his exuberant 25-homer, 1.205 OPS platform year on Rocky Top.
22. Atlanta Braves: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.) HS
A lefty with Schoolcraft’s big arm should slot much higher, but the current industry lean toward collegiate talent in the top of the first round drops him in Atlanta’s lap. At 6-8 and with a 97-mph fastball, Schoolcraft has a significant floor that the Braves can work with.
23. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Fien, INF, Great Oak (Calif.) HS
A Texas commit whose future position is subject to change, Fien’s bat stands up against the prep shortstops projected to go ahead of him.
24. Detroit Tigers: Xavier Neyens, INF, Mt. Vernon (Wash.) HS
We’ll keep Neyens right here, even as his tantalizing upside and 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame could inspire clubs to jump sooner. There are worse players to dream on than a potential left-handed swinging Austin Riley.
25. San Diego Padres: Sean Gamble, INF/OF, IMG (Fla.) Academy
Should add plenty of power and could end up playing anywhere on the diamond – in a good way. Gamble took his talents from Iowa to Bradenton and developed a strong baseball IQ at IMG, and possesses several traits the Padres value.
26. Philadelphia Phillies: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
Does not possess the current offensive profile that Irish offers, but Stevenson is a pure catcher, with an athletic 6-foot-1, 210-pound frame that hit 19 homers for the Tar Heels this season.
27. Cleveland Guardians: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
A nice value this deep in the first round, Summerhill offers the ability to play all three outfield positions and takes a .358/.477/.585 line into the CWS.
28. Kansas City Royals*: Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
You came to Baton Rouge for Kade Anderson, but stick around for Eyanson, who transferred from UC San Diego and struck out 135 in 93 ⅔ innings with a 2.50 ERA in his only season in the SEC. Not an overwhelming repertoire but would benefit in the Royals’ burgeoning pitching program.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks**: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
More glue guy than toolbox, Lodise nonetheless produced a .394/.462/.705 line in his second year in Tallahassee, earning ACC player of the year honors. Hit 17 homers and has potential to add more power, but has value with his ability to play virtually anywhere.
30. Baltimore Orioles**: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
We’ll keep slotting ACC outfielders to Camden Yards until they tell us differently. Yet with his superior defensive ability, speed and extra-base pop, Cannarella fits the Orioles ethos, and a .453 career OBP doesn’t hurt.
31. Baltimore Orioles**: Dean Curley, INF, Tennessee
Lots of power potential packed into a versatile infielder, Curley produced nearly as many walks (45) as strikeouts (47) this season. Concerns about defense.
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
Should be a first-day selection and perhaps hits the outskirts of the first round if things break his way. Neville offers 30-homer power in a 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame that for now has stuck in center field.
*- Prospect promotion incentive pick
**-Free agent compensation pick. Note: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees each received a 10-pick penalty on their first picks for exceeding the second threshold of the competitive balance tax.