Heading into Thursday’s draw for the French Open, there was only one huge storyline: Where would Iga Swiatek, the women’s champion four of the last five years, end up?
Due to a recent dip in form, Swiatek shockingly fell to the No. 5 seed, meaning one of the top four seeds would have to face the most accomplished clay courter of their generation in the quarterfinals.
The loser of that random drawing? Jasmine Paolini, who lost to Swiatek in last year’s final and comes to Roland Garros in top form, having just won the Italian Open in her home country.
The big winner? Coco Gauff.
Gauff, the No. 2 seeded American still seeking a second Grand Slam title after winning the 2023 US Open, will begin this year’s French as a pretty solid favorite to make the final given how the draw shook out.
Not only would Gauff dodge Swiatek until at least the final, pretty much all of the other prime contenders for the title ended up in the top half of the draw with No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka.
Gauff, who recently lost in the finals of Rome (to Paolini) and Madrid (to Sabalenka), even avoided tricky opponents in the early rounds – at least on paper. Her potential third-round opponent, No. 30 Anna Kalinskaya, has never advanced beyond the second round in Paris. In the fourth round, she would be projected to face former Roland Garros winner Barbora Krejcikova, who is coming off a back injury and hasn’t played an official match this year.
In the quarterfinals, Gauff would potentially play No. 7 Madison Keys, who started the year hot with the Australian Open title but has cooled down considerably over the last couple months. And Gauff’s most likely semifinal opponents would be No. 6 Mirra Andreeva, whom she’s beaten twice in routine fashion on clay recently, or No. 3 seeded American Jessica Pegula, who is much more comfortable on hard court than the French surface.
Meanwhile, if Sabalenka is going to make the final, she must deal with several stumbling blocks including potentially a quarterfinal against Zheng Qinwen, who won the Olympics last year at Roland Garros, and whoever emerges from the Paolini/Swiatek quarter. Of course, Swiatek may not even get there because she is potentially lined up for a round of 16 match with Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 French champion, whom she has never beaten in six matches.
Here are the four other key observations from the French Open draw.
- We may finally get Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in a Grand Slam final. For whatever reason, the top two players in men’s tennis have never met with one of the four big trophies on the line among their 11 career matches. But given how these two have pulled clear of the field, it is destined to happen several times – probably beginning here. Sinner, who has won the last two Slams, came off the three-month suspension he negotiated with WADA over last year’s banned substance positive (which he blamed on contamination), and reached the final in Rome before running out of gas against Alcaraz. In fact, Alcaraz has won their last four meetings and has a 7-4 overall lead in the rivalry – but Sinner is 52-2 against everyone else since last year’s French Open.
- Novak Djokovic is a big mystery. Since retiring from the Australian Open semifinals due to injury, he’s just 6-5 as of Thursday morning with more matches pending this weekend at a warm-up tournament in Geneva. The truth is, Djokovic just hasn’t looked very good since he miraculously won the Olympic title last summer. But that’s not surprising: At age 38 and having accomplished everything there is to do in the sport, his physical decline and motivation are major question marks. Given what we’ve seen from Djokovic for more than a calendar year, the odds of him grinding out seven best-of-five matches on clay to win his fourth French crown are low. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if Djokovic took advantage of a pretty favorable draw, reached the quarterfinals and even beat No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev to spark a glimmer of hope.
- Oddly, most of the American men got bunched up in one quarter headlined by No. 4 Taylor Fritz. He could have to face No. 32 Alex Michelsen in the third round and either Frances Tiafoe or Sebastian Korda in the fourth round. The favorite to emerge from that quarter, however, might be No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti, a dazzling Italian shotmaker who has been stellar on clay this year. Ben Shelton, the No. 13 seed, landed in the Alcaraz section and has a tough opener against veteran Lorenzo Sonego. Tommy Paul, who made the semis in Rome, should get an interesting round of 16 matchup against two-time French finalist Casper Ruud.
- Keep an eye on Naomi Osaka. Though her results since coming back from childbirth have been middling at best, and clay isn’t her best surface by any measure, she did recently win a minor league-level title in Saint Malo, France. If she can get past a first round against No. 10 seed Paula Badosa, who continues to struggle with injuries, the draw would really open up for her to make a round of 16 run or deeper.