- Houston’s experience plus Kelvin Sampson’s coaching prowess makes Cougars a tough Final Four opponent for Duke.
- Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., Auburn’s Johni Broome accustomed to going toe to toe with nation’s best teams.
- Even within an elite Final Four, Cooper Flagg can be the ultimate equalizer for Duke.
One of these No. 1 seeds is not like the other.
That’s what oddsmakers would have you believe. The betting books list Duke at even-money odds to win the national championship, making the Blue Devils a decisive favorite.
If you’ve watched Duke play during March Madness, you understand why. The Blue Devils blazed through their region en route to San Antonio. Cooper Flagg is playing like the national player of the year, and the tournament spurred the best from Kon Knueppel, another freshman.
So, prepare Duke’s crown? Not so fast. Here are five reasons why the Blue Devils won’t win the national championship (and one big reason why they will).
Why Duke won’t win national championship
Final Four is historically strong
When Connecticut won the first of its back-to-back national championships in 2023, the Huskies blitzed through No. 5 Miami in the Final Four and No. 5 San Diego State in the national championship game. The Huskies never faced an opponent seeded better than No. 3 during that tournament. That upset-filled March Madness thrill ride produced a watered-down final stage.
Contrast that scene from two years ago with this Final Four, which marks just the second time four top-seeds reached the semifinals. This promises to be an epic finish to an otherwise mundane tournament, at least by March Madness standards.
The analytics nerds love this Final Four. Advanced stats guru Ken Pomeroy ranks this quartet as the four-best teams in the nation. Each team shines on both offense and defense.
Duke must bring its A-game to prevail. A No. 1 seed can survive a shaky performance in the first or second round. Beating Houston and then tackling Florida or Auburn will require two good performances.
BEST EVER?: A list of the seven best Final Fours in since expansion
NCAA RESEED: Ranking the four Final Four teams from best to worst
Kelvin Sampson is best coach in San Antonio
There’s no weak link among the Final Four coaches, but I put Houston’s Kelvin Sampson on the top perch. This marks his third career Final Four appearance. He showed his X’s and O’s chops with a beautifully designed inbounds play that produced Houston’s game-winning bucket against Purdue.
Sampson’s record the past five seasons: 159-23. He breezily transitioned Houston from the American Athletic to the Big 12.
“We develop our staff; we develop our players,” Sampson told reporters in San Antonio. “That’s culture.”
It works.
Houston oozes experience
The Cougars start a sophomore, two juniors, a fifth-year senior and a sixth-year senior. That’s the picture of a veteran lineup accustomed to NCAA men’s tournament battles.
Star guard L.J. Cryer scored 30 points in Houston’s second-round win against Gonzaga. If Houston upsets Duke and plays two games in San Antonio, Cryer would have a chance to reach 2,000 career points.
Veteran, premier guards are a good formula for March Madness success. Houston reflects this. Plus, although every team in San Antonio plays strong defense, nobody defends better than Houston.
Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr. is Mr. March
Walter Clayton Jr. gave us a lasting March Madness moment when he passed up a shot from 5 feet, dribbled out to 23 feet and swished a 3-pointer to put Florida ahead by a point in the closing minute of its Elite Eight win against Texas Tech.
Why shoot for two points when an extra point waits just a few dribbles in the other direction?
Clayton’s heroics helped Florida erase Texas Tech’s nine-point lead with less than three minutes remaining. Since the start of the SEC tournament, Clayton is averaging 21.6 points.
Excellent though Flagg is, if Duke meets Florida in the national championship, it would face the hottest scorer in the country.
Auburn and Johni Broome survived the fires
No Final Four team faced a tougher path to San Antonio than Auburn.
Never mind that Auburn received the No. 1 overall seed. The selection committee did Auburn no favors in charting a course that called on the Tigers to survive No. 9 Creighton, No. 5 Michigan and No. 2 Michigan State en route to the Final Four. Survive, they did.
Auburn’s rugged tournament march came on the heels of a stiff regular-season schedule. The Tigers amassed a nation-leading 16 “Quad 1 victories.”
You could argue that maybe Auburn is wearing down. Alternatively, Auburn is accustomed to this level of competition, and star center Johni Broome just delivered one of his finest performances in the Elite Eight against Michigan State.
Bruce Pearl has his team playing with the spirit of an underdog but the talent of a frontrunner. That’s a tough combination.
Why Duke will win national championship
Cooper Flagg and his companions are darn good
Duke encountered two points of skepticism entering the tournament: One, Flagg injured his ankle during the ACC tournament. Two, the ACC experienced a down year. Was Duke the real deal?
In four tournament games, Duke quieted each concern: Flagg’s playing well, and the Blue Devils proved that whatever deficiencies its ACC comrades may have, don’t apply to them.
Coach Jon Scheyer made replacing a legend look easier than it is. Flagg made living up to the pressure of a No. 1 recruiting ranking look like child’s play, too.
Duke can’t match Houston’s experience, and Florida features the best pure scoring guard in this Final Four, and Auburn touts the nation’s best center.
How to counter all that? Start by having the best all-around player. That’s Flagg. Flagg’s supporting cast picked the perfect time to peak, too.
The Blue Devils are a complete team. They form a worthy favorite amid an all-time Final Four.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.