The madness of March is officially here.
On Sunday night, and after weeks of intense anticipation, 68-team brackets for the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments were unveiled, setting the stage for what should be a beautifully frenetic three-week stretch leading up to the respective Final Fours and national championship games.
While women’s college basketball lost several famous faces after last season — most notably Iowa superstar and Division I all-time leading scorer Caitlin Clark — there will be plenty of intrigue surrounding the NCAA Tournament this season.
Can Dawn Staley and South Carolina successfully repeat as national champions? How far can JuJu Watkins, Clark’s heir as the brightest star in the sport, carry her USC team? Can No. 1 UCLA make its first-ever Final Four? And, once there, win a national title? Can standout guard Paige Bueckers and UConn add another award to the massive trophy case the Huskies have built up under legendary coach Geno Auriemma? Who will be the small-school upstarts and Cinderellas that will pull off stunning upsets and capture millions of hearts across the country?
Here’s a look at which teams in the women’s NCAA Tournament have the best opportunities at scoring an upset:
Most likely upsets in women’s March Madness bracket
Perhaps above all else, the NCAA Tournament on both the men’s and women’s side is defined by upsets.
Here are a few games in which a team seeded 11th or lower has a good opportunity to pull out a victory as an underdog:
- No. 11 George Mason over No. 6 Florida State: This wouldn’t be the first time a George Mason basketball team has picked up a big March win as a No. 11 seed. Even though this Patriots team almost certainly won’t make a Final Four like their male counterparts did in 2006, they’re peaking at the right time, with 15 victories in their past 17 games in the respectable Atlantic 10.
- No. 12 Green Bay over No. 5 Alabama: The Phoenix brought back six of their top seven scorers from a team that went 27-7 and made the NCAA Tournament last season. This year, they’re even better, at 29-5 and riding a 22-game win streak.
- No. 12 Fairfield over No. 5 Kansas State: Not only are the Stags hot, with 22 wins in their past 23 games, but they’re getting a reeling opponent. The Wildcats have lost four of their past six games after a 24-3 start.
NCAA women’s basketball tournament sleeper picks
Here’s a group of teams that have the potential not only to win a game, but pull off unexpected victories in the second round and beyond against top seeds that could throw brackets into chaos:
- No. 11 Iowa State: It has been a disappointing season for the Cyclones, a preseason top-10 team that’s 22-11 heading into the tournament. Still, this is a group that has its top three scorers, led by star center Audi Crooks, back from a squad that nearly upset No. 1 seed Stanford in the second round last season.
- No. 8 Cal: The Golden Bears racked up 25 wins during the regular season, which included victories against ranked squads like NC State and Alabama. They may not be able to pull off the upset, but coach Charmin Smith’s team could at the very least give old Pac-12 mate USC a scare in the second round.
- No. 7 Vanderbilt: There are few, if any, scoring tandems in the country more dynamic than Mikayla Blakes and Khamil Pierre, who combine to average 43.7 points per game. That kind of offensive punch could give anyone fits, including No. 2 seed Duke in a potential second-round matchup.
Who will win the NCAA women’s basketball tournament?
Unlike at many different points over the past two decades, the women’s NCAA Tournament doesn’t have some domineering Goliath that everyone else in the field is chasing.
Still, there’s a handful of squads who stand out as favorites entering March Madness.
UCLA is 30-2 this season, with its only two losses coming against USC. That gaudy record includes wins against top-20 teams like South Carolina, USC, Ohio State, Maryland and Baylor. If the Bruins can manage to avoid the Trojans, nobody else in the country has shown they can beat them. And even if they do draw Watkins and USC in the Final Four, they can win that, too, just as they did in the Big Ten Tournament championship game.
Despite losing key pieces like Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina has continued to be one of the country’s best teams and still has several important players who were on last year’s national championship squad, a group that includes MiLaysia Fulwiley, Te-Hina Paopao and Chloe Kitts. Add in star freshman Joyce Edwards and the Gamecocks are right in the thick of the national title race.
USC has lost just three times this season, with two of those setbacks coming against top-10 teams. As brilliant as Watkins has been, the Trojans have more than just her, with forward Kiki Iriafen averaging 18.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
Then, of course, there’s UConn, a program that’s more than familiar with deep runs in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have made the Final Four in three of the past four seasons and behind another talented roster featuring Bueckers, Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, they enter the tournament with a 31-3 record, which included an undefeated run through the Big East.
The pick here, though, is Texas. The Longhorns are 31-3, with every loss coming to a top-10 team, two of which were at the hands of South Carolina, which it could meet again in the Final Four. Sophomore forward Madison Booker is one of the best players in the country and has a strong supporting cast behind her that includes Taylor Jones, Rori Harmon and Kyla Oldacre. They’re guided not just by a talented, well-rounded roster, but an experienced coach in Vic Schafer, who led Mississippi State to two NCAA championship games and has taken Texas to the Elite Eight three times in the previous four seasons. This year, the Longhorns break through and win it all.