- Final Four could be loaded with No. 1 seeds, but Auburn must survive tough region.
- As good as SEC has been all season, can someone from outside that conference win national championship? See Houston.
Bring on the madness.
We’re days away from our brackets being busted. In the meantime, we can harbor visions of correctly predicting that first-round upset no one saw coming, acing our Final Four picks and winning a bracket pool.
Nobody got snubbed
However, I’m also unconvinced a clearly better option existed. Indiana, Boise State and West Virginia possessed the best résumés of omitted teams.
∎ Indiana’s NET ranking of No. 54 came in 18 spots behind UNC.
∎ Boise State, trying to become the Mountain West’s fifth qualifier, lost 10 games, including a dreaded Quad 4 loss.
∎ West Virginia lost five of its final nine games.
Nobody truly got snubbed. This collection of bubble teams reiterated that the tournament need not expand beyond 68 teams.
SEC will thrive, Big Ten will dive
The SEC proved itself as the nation’s most-elite conference throughout the season, and I expect that idea to hold up these next three weeks. The SEC’s sheer volume positions it for success. The SEC qualified a record 14 teams. Eight of those qualifiers earned a No. 6 seed or better.
That sets up the SEC to swarm the Sweet 16, and, with four teams seeded either No. 1 or No. 2, the conference enjoys a strong chance of multiple Final Four qualifiers. However, I suspect the 1985 Big East will retain its record of three Final Four teams. I’m capping the SEC at two Final Four squads – which I think will be two more than the Big Ten.
The Big Ten came in second among conferences with eight bids, but Michigan State is the only Big Ten team ranked in the top 10 nationally by analytics guru Ken Pomeroy. The conference lacks for the SEC’s scoring punch. I’m picking no Big Ten teams to the Final Four.
Toughest region: South
Auburn earned the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. Its prize: A potential second-round game against No. 8 Louisville, in Lexington, Kentucky. That’s not a prize. That’s a boobytrap. I rate Louisville, which won 27 games, as the tournament’s best No. 8 seed.
Elsewhere in Auburn’s South Region lurks No. 2 Michigan State, the Big Ten’s regular-season champion, and No. 5 Michigan, the Big Ten Tournament champion.
Also lurking in the South is No. 3 Iowa State, which lost to Auburn by just two points in November.
First-round upset special: No. 11 Drake beats No. 6 Missouri
This will be a trendy upset pick for a reason: Drake rates as one of the nation’s best mid-majors. The Bulldogs play lockdown defense. They beat tournament qualifier Vanderbilt in November.
First-year Drake coach Ben McCollum won four Division II national championships at Northwest Missouri State. Four of his players from his former school now start for him at Drake. That includes guard Bennett Stirtz, the best player on either roster in this matchup.
Missouri has lost four of its last five. Upset special!
First-round upset special, Part II: No. 13 Yale beats No. 4 Texas A&M
Here’s an opportunity for Yale to inflict more pain on the SEC after it upset Auburn last season. Yale and Texas A&M are premier rebounding teams. Expect a physical game.
Yale’s top player, John Poulakidas, poured in 28 points in last year’s upset of Auburn.
Texas A&M’s offense is prone to vanishing acts, and Yale could make the Aggies disappear in Round 1.
Player matchup I want to see involves Auburn’s Johni Broome
If you like low-post battles, No. 1 Auburn versus No. 9 Creighton would be a dream matchup. Auburn’s Johni Broome rates as the nation’s best big man. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner, the four-time Big East defensive player of the year, isn’t far behind on that list.
The Bluejays will face a difficult first-round test against Louisville. If they can survive that, an Auburn-Creighton matchup offers the possibility for brute and brilliance in the paint.
Final Four loaded with No. 1 seeds
I’m selecting three No. 1 seeds in my Final Four. Houston and Florida ranked among my national championship frontrunners for several weeks. They’re led by a balanced cast of veterans, and each team can win with either offense or defense.
I’ll take those two No. 1 seeds to the Final Four, along with another No. 1 seed, Duke. That Duke pick hinges on Cooper Flagg recovering from the ankle injury that knocked him out of the ACC Tournament.
In the South, I’m projecting chaos, from which No. 3 Iowa State emerges to disrupt the party of No. 1 seeds in San Antonio.
National championship pick: Houston beats Florida
Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have lost just once – in overtime – since November. Houston is balanced on offense, elite on defense and armed with excellent perimeter shooters. Sampson has coached in two Final Fours. I predict he finally captures his first ring at age 69.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.