‘Championship window’ talk is one of the lowest common denominators we have in the venerated sports discourse. One peep through the pane, and the brain jumps from Point A to J without much consideration in between.
Welcome to a calmer corner of that discussion. Our subject? The San Francisco 49ers. Over the first two days of NFL free agency (and even before), the team’s respective “Super-Bowl window” has become a topic of conversation given the roster exodus they have experienced and the way last season ended.
Is it time to erect a “Here lies the San Francisco 49ers Super-Bowl window, 2019-2024” tombstone? Below we’ll make the case for and the case against that argument. It’s a copout, sure, but here’s to raising the level of debate for something we’ll have to watch play out regardless of what we say before the games are played.
The case for
Here’s a brief rundown of the departures over the last 10 days:
- Wide receiver Deebo Samuel was dealt to the Washington Commanders for a fifth-round pick.
- Dre Greenlaw, who alongside Fred Warner made arguably the best inside linebacker duo in the NFL, signed with the Denver Broncos. Talanoa Hufanga, the oft-injured safety who played well when healthy, also signed with the Broncos.
- Guard Aaron Banks signed with the Green Bay Packers and tackle Jaylon Moore signed with the Chiefs.
- Cornerback Charvarius Ward signed with the Indianapolis Colts.
- Fullback Kyle Juszczyk, a staple of the team, was released.
- Backup running back Elijah Mitchell signed with the Chiefs.
- Defensive linemen Javon Hargrave and Leonard Floyd were released.
Everything about those moves signals that general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan know they have to emphasize youth and let the players they’ve developed and maximize seek their paydays elsewhere. One would assume a lot of those savings, though, will be tied up in whatever quarterback Brock Purdy commands on his next contract.
As Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons noted on social media Tuesday in response to a post about the 49ers ‘gutting themselves:’
‘No more rookie qb lol welcome to reality.’ Indeed. (Although there’s an applicable saying about stones and glass houses here.)
The Niners honored Samuel’s trade request and saved $17 million on him in 2025. But they signed Brandon Aiyuk last offseason rather than trading him (four years, $120 million, $76 million guaranteed) and the wideout tore his ACL and MCL in Week 7. His health and production at the start of the season will inform whether the 49ers will eventually see the extension as a mistake. For now, the signing of Demarcus Robinson (two years for $9.5 million, $6 million guaranteed, per NFL Network) is the most significant addition to the offense.
Turning 37 before the start of the season, left tackle Trent Williams isn’t getting any younger. Tight end George Kittle – who is one of the best receivers at the position in the league and a tough blocker – is another year older (31) and also has a history with injuries. And what if the best days of running back Christian McCaffrey (29 when the season starts) are behind him? Purdy and defensive end Nick Bosa are in the minority of the “core” who are still considered football young and mostly healthy, although both have endured significant injuries in their past.
San Francisco’s main NFC West rival, the Los Angeles Rams, aren’t getting worse, which diminishes the Niners’ odds of winning the division and hosting a playoff game. Plus, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions are the present power-centers of the NFC.
From the 2019 to 2023 seasons, the Niners either played in the Super Bowl or NFC Championship Game four times. Both Super-Bowl defeats came at the hands of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, and the 49ers had second half leads in both contests. In one NFC title game, their starting quarterback’s elbow became jelly in the first quarter.
The Niners have four picks in the top 100 next month. But it was just three years ago Lynch and Shanahan sacrificed three first-round picks and a third-rounder to move up nine spots in that draft and select Trey Lance No. 3 overall. The hits have not come at the top of the draft, but it was in those middle rounds – Warner in the third, Greenlaw in the fifth, Samuel in the second – and of course the final pick of the 2022 draft, Purdy.
To keep the window ajar, the draft becomes paramount: are the Niners equipped for the task?
San Francisco finished 6-11 last season and in what has become a Shanahan-era theme is “NFC Championship Game” or bust. The Niners seem more destined for the latter in 2025 than another title-game appearance.
The case against
Remember last year when the Buffalo Bills had to endure talk of their own championship window closing? Well, the Bills secured the No. 2 seed in the conference and came one game away – and perhaps one inch – from the franchise’s first Super Bowl in more than 30 years. Having the reigning MVP and the sport’s richest man in Josh Allen is the main factor, and Purdy is definitely not Allen.
The point is that sometimes these conversations overthink the fact that if the bones are good, the rest matters less.
Running it back last season was reasonable, whereas doing it again in 2025 would have been egregious. Lynch and Shanahan did the hard thing by letting good players walk away. With the Purdy contract looming, it would have been reckless to bring back players such as Banks, Moore and Ward for what they received on the open market ($167 million total). A cheaper option than Juszczyk is out there and can fill a similar role. The situation with Samuel was beyond the breaking point. This is a good draft to help build depth on both sides of the line.
The Niners still have enough talent on the roster that would make many other front offices jealous. If Williams can play at his elite level, he’s one of the best assets on the offensive side of the ball in the league. McCaffrey must quickly put his injuries in the past (perhaps impending fatherhood can help). Aiyuk has to return to his pre-injury form early enough in the season. A Ricky Pearsall leap in his sophomore season would go a long way in giving Shanahan another capable receiver to scheme open.
This is how well-run organizations operate. There’s an argument to be made that the Niners should have had more foresight and tried to trim fat sooner last year. Coming off a Super Bowl appearance, that would have been a tough sell to everybody from ownership to the fan base.