If crystal balls really did predict the future, then there’d be no debate about how the college football season plays out. The outcomes would be foreseeable and the debates would be muted. Thankfully, that’s not the case. And as we enter an era of change with an expanded College Football Playoff and conference realignment, there’s a palpable feeling of uncertainty as nobody can be sure about how it all will play out.
There was unpredictability last year with Washington and Texas making the playoff, while two-time defending champion Georgia missed out. There are major questions this year. How will Oklahoma and Texas adjust to life in the SEC? Can Michigan recover from the loss of Jim Harbaugh and be national title contenders again? Will the additions of four Pac-12 schools drastically alter the power hierarchy in the Big Ten?
On the individuals front, Caleb Williams was seeking a repeat Heisman Trophy last season and failed to reach New York. The race appears wide open with only two contenders – Ollie Gordon III and Jalen Milroe – finishing among the top 10 last year.
Due to a flurry of turnover, many existing coaches start on the hot seat and there’s some new hires at new places under immediately pressure – notably Kalen DeBoer at Alabama, Mike Ellko at Texas A&M and Jedd Fisch at Washington.
So how does it all shake out? That’s where the experts at USA TODAY Sports come in. We’re here to offer our predictions for the season ahead.
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Who makes the College Football Playoff?
Who wins the national championship?
Scooby Axson: Ohio State. It’s the Big Ten/SEC invitational, at least for this year, and the now-or-never mindset of the Buckeyes will have them hoisting the trophy in Atlanta, where they had their last playoff disappointment in a loss to Georgia two seasons ago.
Jordan Mendoza: Oregon. The “O” logo won’t longer represent how many national titles have been won in Eugene. Dillon Gabriel is a seasoned star that will flourish under Dan Lanning, but the defense has the chance to be among the toughest in the country. The Ducks likely won’t go undefeated and will suffer a loss – maybe two – but will be clicking on all cylinders by the time the playoff rolls around, and Oregon wins the title to make a statement in its first season in the Big Ten.
Paul Myerberg: Georgia. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are the current class of the FBS. While the Buckeyes might have the deepest collection of talent and some of the biggest stars in the country, I like the Bulldogs to get back on top after a brief one-year run outside the top four.
Erick Smith: Georgia. Whether it is the motivation of missing out on last season’s playoff or just the sheer amount of talent accumulated by Kirby Smart, it is hard to pick against the Bulldogs returning to the top of the college football mountain. They check all the boxes. Elite quarterback. Talented offensive line. Skill people. Dominant defense. Georgia may drop a game in the regular season or even the SEC title game (again). But it is best suited to manage the expanded playoff system.
Eddie Timanus: Ohio State. It’s unlikely anyone will get through the season completely unscathed, and the angsty Buckeyes’ fan base will still find plenty to complain about over the course of the year. But they’ll do enough to reach the Big Ten finale, win it to secure a top-two seed, and prevail in a classic championship game.
Dan Wolken: Ohio State. If you knock on the door enough times, you’ll eventually break through. This feels like that kind of year for Ohio State. They’ve got the motivation, they’ve got the talent and they’ve got the returning experience to thrive both in the regular season and in a playoff setting. Ryan Day finally gets it done this year.
Who wins the Heisman Trophy?
Axson: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon. Gabriel has enough experience (49 starts) and the playmakers around him to put up big numbers, and as the Ducks forge toward the playoffs, more eyes will be on the sixth-year quarterback.
Mendoza: Jalen Milroe, Alabama. The Crimson Tide signal-caller flourished in the second half of last season and he continues to shine in 2024. He can take his passing game to the next level with Kalen DeBoer at the helm, plus his legs and the ability to outrun nearly anybody makes him such a dangerous threat for Alabama. Expect lots of Heisman moments from Milroe.
Myerberg: Quinn Ewers, Texas. He has very strong name recognition and will be surrounded by the Longhorns’ most talented team in over a decade. Should Texas match expectations and get back into the playoff, Ewers should have the numbers to rise to the top of the Heisman list. He’ll have to stay healthy, though, as injuries have sidelined him the past two seasons.
Smith: Carson Beck, Georgia. If the Bulldogs are going to be the best team in the regular season then it stands to reason their best player is going right at the top of the contenders for the Heisman. Beck quietly had a great debut season and should be even better in 2024.
Timanus: Jalen Milroe, Alabama. The Alabama signal caller amply demonstrated his clutch gene last season, and he’ll put up even better numbers in new coach Kalen DeBoer’s system. He’ll cement the award with a huge performance in the SEC title game.
Wolken: Carson Beck, Georgia. Georgia is probably going to be the No. 1 team for most of the year, and Carson Beck is going to put up really good numbers. He’s a really good quarterback with a lot of talent around him. That’s usually the recipe for winning a Heisman.
What will be the game of the year?
Axson: Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12. This may be the first of two or three meetings between the new conference foes this season. The Buckeyes and Ducks will be introducing new quarterbacks from the transfer portal and should have ample time to settle into a routine before this meeting.
Mendoza: Georgia at Alabama, Sept. 28. There’s no more Nick Saban, but can Kalen DeBoer prove Alabama, and not Georgia, is still the top dog in the SEC? The expectations are always high for the Crimson Tide and DeBoer can do himself a favor by beating the Bulldogs, while Kirby Smart will want to assert he is the class of the conference now that Saban is gone. Winner likely cements a path for a first-round bye in the playoff.
Myerberg: Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 30. I’m still going with this epic matchup despite the fact that the 12-team playoff could render this and other end-of-year rivalries less important than in the past. Beyond the bragging rights in the series, the meeting in late November should also serve as an eliminator for the Big Ten title game and put the winner on track for a top-four finish and bye in the first round.
Smith: Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 30. There might be games with more playoff impact. There won’t be any games with more emotion than when the Longhorns and Aggies renew their heated rivalry after 13 years of dormancy. And if both teams are in the running for the SEC title game or playoff contention, the level of intensity could be ramped up even further. Enjoy.
Timanus: Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12. One could make a case for a number of options on this particular Saturday, but we’ll go with this first visit for the Buckeyes to one of the Big Ten’s new members on the west coast.
Wolken: Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12. One good thing about the new Big Ten is that there will be huge games that involve more than just the Michigan-Ohio State-Penn State triumvirate. Ohio State-Oregon could easily be a national championship preview.
Who is the biggest surprise team?
Axson: Miami. Either the transfer portal will work wonders for the Hurricanes, or Mario Cristobal will be looking for a new job. New quarterback Cam Ward gives Miami a legitimate chance to make the playoff, and with an improved defense and ridiculously manageable schedule, the ACC is there for the taking.
Mendoza: Kansas. Three years ago, the thought of Kansas having any football success would sound ludicrous, but Lance Leipold has turned things around in Lawrence. If there was any time for the Jayhawks to peak, it’s this year. Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal are among the top 1-2 punches in the Big 12, and steller cornerback Cobee Bryant anchors the defense. The schedule is favorable with the toughest games coming against West Virginia and Kansas State on the road. They don’t have the luxury of affording slip ups, but if the Jayhawks stay healthy, they very well can play themselves in the College Football Playoff.
Myerberg: North Carolina State. There’s a void atop the ACC, as Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech proved. While Clemson, Miami and maybe North Carolina are seen as the most obvious teams to fill the Seminoles’ shoes atop the conference standing, N.C. State may be the most complete team in the conference. There’s enough there for the Wolfpack to crack 10 wins for the second time in program history and win the ACC.
Smith: Oklahoma. Lots of talk that the Sooners will be overwhelmed in their first season in the SEC. And the schedule is ridiculously hard with six teams ranked in the preseason top 15. But if they can split those six games then playoff consideration would be reasonable. QB Jackson Arnold and the offensive line will take time to settle early, but the defense looks improved enough to handle the rigors of the daunting journey.
Timanus: North Carolina State. Observant readers will have noted my slotting of the Wolfpack in at the No. 4 spot in the playoff projection above, a tacit assertion that they’re going to win the ACC. A stretch perhaps, but things have gone pretty well for the athletic department in 2024, and the league schedule sets up fairly well for football to possibly keep the fun going in Raleigh.
Wolken: Miami. Nobody is really talking about Miami, but the amount of talent that has been accumulated by Mario Cristobal and his coaching staff is significant. That includes Cam Ward transferring from Washington State and landing in Coral Gables rather than going to the NFL draft. He’s the real deal, and Miami could rise to the top of a questionable ACC.
Who will be the biggest disappointment?
Axson: Oklahoma. Life in the SEC is going to get really tough, really quick. The defense, which gave up too many big plays but also picked off 20 passes last season, will need to tighten up, and new quarterback Jackson Arnold will need to cut down on the turnovers. Easier said than done with teams like Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama and LSU, plus the annual tilt with Texas on the schedule.
Mendoza: Mississippi. The hype is high for Lane Kiffin and company, and a No. 6 ranking in the preseason USA TODAY Sports coaches poll gives the Rebels faith it can reach the playoff. But the SEC is a bloodbath, and Ole Miss falters in the second half of the season to take them out of playoff contention and end the year in disappointment.
Myerberg: Colorado. The ratio of attention to success will continue to be out of balance for the Buffaloes, who will be better in Deion Sanders’ second year but should not be not expected to contend in the Big 12. Could Colorado get to a bowl game? That’s a more manageable achievement. But it’s not one that should take pressure off of Sanders, who is 4-8 through one year and has continued to rely on dozens of transfers to fill out his depth chart.
Smith: Missouri. The Tigers benefit from perhaps the easiest possible schedule in the SEC and are coming off an 11-win campaign. But talk of reaching the playoff is premature with an uncertain defense that lost talented coordinator Blake Baker to LSU and the program dealing with increased expectations. There will be a surprise loss or two as they fall closer to out of the Top 25 than in the 12-team field.
Timanus: Notre Dame. Without the benefit of conference affiliation, things have to go just about perfectly for the Fighting Irish to secure a playoff invitation. And they won’t. They’ll win at least eight games, but they’ll drop one they’re not supposed to, and there won’t be enough on the resume to overcome it.
Wolken: Michigan. The personnel losses of the Wolverines were significant enough that they’d have taken a step back even if Jim Harbaugh stayed. Of course, Harbaugh didn’t stay – and there’s going to be a big learning curve with a rookie head coach. Add the NCAA investigation disruptions on top of that, and Michigan is headed for a pretty mediocre season.
Who is coach of year?
Axson: Ryan Day, Ohio State. Any football coach would take a 56-8 record going into their sixth full season. But this is Ohio State, which goes into every season as a now-or-never candidate to win the national title. Another loss to Michigan makes this prediction moot, but Day and the Buckeyes have enough talent and challenges in their schedule to at least make the playoffs.
Mendoza: Lance Leipold, Kansas. The Jayhawks making the postseason tournament in football caps what has been a remarkable turnaround since Leipold took over the program in 2021. With a group of seniors leading Kansas into the playoff and leaving at the end of the season, he becomes another big name to watch in the coaching carousel.
Myerberg: Kalen DeBoer, Alabama. DeBoer will coach 2024 under a different sort of scrutiny. For starters, he’s the new coach at Alabama; pressure is always high, especially on newcomers. He’s also inheriting the highest standard of success of any program in the FBS, where anything but a playoff bid and deep run in the postseason would be seen as falling short. And he’s stepping in for Nick Saban, widely seen as college football coaching’s GOAT. Amid all of that, getting to 10 wins and potentially winning the SEC would be another feather in DeBoer’s cap.
Smith: James Franklin, Penn State. The Nittany Lions are positioned to be one of the programs that will have the greatest benefit from playoff expansion. They’ll be in the field and don’t be surprised if they upset Ohio State in the regular season and reach the Big Ten title game.
Timanus: Brent Pry, Virginia Tech. No, the Hokies won’t win the ACC, but they’ll land in the league’s top tier and will finish the campaign with a number before their name.
Wolken: Lane Kiffin, Mississippi. Kiffin has done enough work in the portal to get Ole Miss over the hump and into the College Football Playoff. Given the historic limitations on that program, a consensus will form around Kiffin as coach of the year not necessarily based on being a surprise team this year but on the body of work to elevate the program beyond what it has been historically.