In the week since Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate, Donald Trump’s campaign and its allies have arguably spent even more time attacking him than Harris. They’ve called his record as governor too liberal and focused extensively on his claims about his military service — even as Republicans have fretted about the Trump campaign’s failure to define Harris.
It’s still early, but so far there is little evidence that the Walz attacks are getting much traction in the court of public opinion.
Multiple polls in recent days have tested views of Walz, and they suggest he’s a relatively popular VP pick. That includes among middle-of-the-road voters and independents.
YouGov national polling and a New York Times/Siena College poll of three crucial states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) last week both showed Walz’s favorable rating outpacing his unfavorable rating by 11 points. The YouGov poll showed 41 percent had a favorable opinion, while 30 percent had an unfavorable one. The Times/Siena poll showed Walz’s split at 39-28.
YouGov found that Americans said by about a 2-1 margin Walz was a good pick (though about 4 in 10 offered no opinion). The Times/Siena poll showed that about half of those swing states’ voters were at least “satisfied” with the pick, while just over one-third were dissatisfied or worse.
The YouGov poll was conducted Thursday and the Times/Siena poll concluded Friday, which means they might not reflect the continued hits on Walz in recent days.
But we just got a new poll of Florida from Suffolk University that was conducted through Sunday, and it also suggests Walz is in relatively good shape.
The poll showed his overall image rating about evenly split (30 percent favorable versus 32 percent unfavorable). That’s not exactly sterling.
But this is also an increasingly Republican-leaning former swing state, with a large Republican voter-registration advantage (the poll sampled registered voters). And when you drill down specifically on independents and moderates, Walz does significantly better. Independents liked him by 15 points, 32-17, while moderates liked him by 13 points, 34-21.
Those positive numbers among more middle-of-the-road voters also show up in the other polls, despite efforts to argue Walz is extreme.
The YouGov poll showed Walz’s image among independents was a positive 39-31, and the gap was even bigger among moderates — 47-22. The Times/Siena poll showed independents favored Walz 40-29.
The polling also suggests Walz could carry the kind of appeal that Democrats might have hoped for with some key groups that are big question marks with Harris atop the ticket. While Harris trails among non-college-educated Whites by 13 points, and rural and small-town voters by 17 points in the Times/Siena poll, Walz’s image among both was about evenly split (33-31 and 34-32, respectively).
It is, as mentioned, early. And these numbers will shift as more Americans consume information about Walz. Large numbers, especially among middle-of-the-road voters, are not offering opinions about him yet.
But at least for now, his numbers are pretty good. They’re also notably better than GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance’s ever were. The Ohio senator has been underwater in just about every national poll since shortly after he was picked in mid-July, with his numbers continuing to decline in recent weeks. By contrast, every national public poll thus far shows more voters like Walz than dislike him.
And the Florida poll is a case in point. While Walz is in double-digits positive territory with independents and moderates, both groups dislike Vance by the same 17-point margin, 46-29. Vance has lost significant ground among such voters in other polls, too.
That suggests a running mate is a significant liability in the 2024 election. It’s just not Walz right now.