It’s been a week since the NFL free agent market unofficially opened, and it didn’t take long for most of the prominent players on expiring contracts to signal where they’d be playing in 2024 (and, likely, beyond). Those decisions, and others that have trickled down since, have drastically reshaped the direction of next month’s draft – some clubs filling apparent needs, while new ones opened elsewhere.
Friday, a development directly impacting the first round emerged, the Vikings acquiring a second Round 1 choice from the Texans – though that could be a precursor to another move given Minnesota now has a long-term issue at quarterback following Kirk Cousins’ departure.
Moving forward, there are still a handful of significant free agents who could further shift draft strategies. And, if history is any indicator, another pre-draft trade or two – whether involving players and/or high-end picks – will further alter the landscape. But here’s the latest prognostication with the league’s signature offseason event just five weeks away:
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC
As if there was ever a mystery, previous QB1 Justin Fields was traded over the weekend for 10 cents on the dollar, clearing the way for GM Ryan Poles to replace him – presumably with Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. His arm, vision, ability to make off-platform throws and otherwise vast potential make him tantalizing – Williams loosely compares himself to Aaron Rodgers, from a football perspective, rather than Patrick Mahomes. Williams is also a red-zone weapon (21 rushing TDs over the past two seasons) but typically uses his mobility to extend plays rather than break the pocket, passing for 72 TDs and more than 8,000 yards in two seasons with the Trojans. He’ll have to learn to protect the ball better and when to give up on bad plays, but Williams could soon be the linchpin of a Chicago revival … and throwing to WRs DJ Moore and Keenan Allen should provide a nice initiation. Also, bringing in a rookie quarterback resets the contractual clock at the position and allows Poles to continue loading up the rest of his roster – even after re-signing CB Jaylon Johnson and adding S Kevin Byard, RB D’Andre Swift and Allen. (And what Fields must’ve thought about all of that …)
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2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
As if there was ever a mystery, previous QB1 Sam Howell (traded to Seattle) and QB2 Jacoby Brissett (signed with New England) are gone, leaving journeyman Jake Fromm as the only passer currently on the roster – though veteran Marcus Mariota is apparently on the way. Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner, didn’t work out at the league’s scouting combine but will draw scores of eyes at LSU’s pro day next week. He’s already saddled with the unfortunate burden of being compared to two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, which includes concerns about how well (or willing) Daniels will be to protect his slender frame – and D.C. fans can easily remember Robert Griffin III’s unrecoverable breakdown near the end of his 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. But credit Daniels, whose decision-making (40 TD passes, 4 INTs last season), accuracy, touch and processing speed all seem well ahead of Jackson and RG3 at similar points in their development. And then there’s that eye-popping ability to run (2,019 yards, 22 TDs over past two seasons) that separates Daniels among his QB peers this year. He could (should?) nicely plug into new OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, which got blocking upgrades in free agency – though the unit could still use a proven left tackle.
3. Minnesota Vikings [PROJECTED TRADE with New England Patriots]: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Plenty to unpack here, so pay attention. First, this operates from the assumption the Vikes will make one more trade in the near future in a bid to backfill the loss of Cousins beyond the short-term signing of Sam Darnold. And while such a move this far closely approximates what the 49ers did three years ago to jump into position for QB Trey Lance – and we know how that worked out – Minnesota likely wouldn’t have to pony up three first-rounders since it can now offer two this year, something San Francisco couldn’t. Currently, the Vikings’ next pick after Round 1 is in the fourth – meaning multiple mid-round picks in 2025 should be enough to consummate such a deal, and that would seem to be quite sensible for new Pats director of scouting Eliot Wolf given the numerous holes on his roster. New England currently doesn’t seem much better positioned to support a young quarterback than it did when Mac Jones was there, so why not kick the QB can down the road a bit and roll with Brissett for now?
As for Minnesota, this is partially an exercise in connecting dots, a draft tradition like no other. (For what it’s worth, it’s also an exercise in addressing a position key to the future of All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson, who’s headed into the final season of his rookie deal.) Newly hired quarterbacks coach Josh McCown – he played in the league for nearly two decades – was not only a teammate of Darnold’s with the Jets, he coached Maye at Myers Park High School in Charlotte. From there, Maye went on to stardom at UNC, where was the ACC Player of the Year in 2022. His huge arm and ability to be a bruising runner outside the pocket on his best days already evoke mentions of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. OK, fine – he did have a nearly four-to-one TD-to-INT ratio in college and ran for 16 scores over the past two years. But like Allen, his college tape leaves something to be desired at times, particularly last season – when, admittedly, his supporting cast in Chapel Hill wasn’t as good. Still, Maye is sharp with a serious array of tools and certainly compelling enough to be in the conversation for Washington, too.
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Arguably this draft’s best player, this has felt like the spot all along for Harrison – and only more so following WR Hollywood Brown’s defection to Kansas City. The 2023 Biletnikoff winner and two-time All-American with Hall of Fame bloodlines, Harrison averaged better than 1,200 receiving yards and 14 TDs over the past two seasons and might be the best product issuing from what seems like a Buckeyes receiving assembly line. The 6-3, 209-pounder combines size and speed with silky route running, the ability to separate and catch contested balls and would likely quickly emerge as Kyler Murray’s No. 1 target – something the quarterback hasn’t really had from the wideout position following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins last year.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Spectacular as Harrison is, plenty of proponents for Odunze, an All-American last year and All-Pac-12 member the past two. Whether or not recently released Mike Williams re-signs with the Bolts, the trade of WR1 Keenan Allen leaves a sizable void – especially when factoring in the losses of RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett. Aside from the fact Odunze might be the best player available in this scenario – and one who could directly support Herbert – he’s also fresh off embracing the combine grind, running a 4.45-second 40-yard dash while acing the gauntlet and looking every bit the part of a potential All-Pro down the line. The 6-3, 212-pounder has a sterling off-field reputation plus the ball skills and production (92 catches, for 1,640 yards, 13 TDs in 2023) to readily supplant Allen, who could never run like Odunze.
6. New York Giants: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Yes, QB Daniel Jones is still in the Jersey swamps, and the G-Men just signed Drew Lock to a one-year deal. No matter. Despite his relatively low usage in the passing game at Ann Arbor – where he was surrounded by a tremendous supporting cast on both sides of the ball – McCarthy’s stock seems to continue skyrocketing. Why? Demeanor, accuracy, leadership, athleticism, high ceiling, exquisite – yes – game management. And he’s a winner (27-1 record with the Wolverines). This situation would also make sense insomuch as McCarthy could redshirt behind Lock and Jones, whom the Giants can easily cut next offseason – or trade if he plays well in Year 2 of his four-year, $160 million contract. And given what Fields had to cope with in Chicago, why not take McCarthy and keep the shrink wrap on until GM Joe Schoen can get Big Blue’s supporting cast in order?
7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
The massive (6-9, 321), unanimous 2023 All-American – and son of legendary Chiefs lineman John Alt – is widely regarded as the best blocker in this draft. And given the Titans addressed the offensive skill positions in free agency (WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard), may as well continue leveling up the line after they made LG Peter Skoronski their first-round pick in 2023. So let’s drop Alt in next to him in a bid to continue improving the protection around second-year QB Will Levis. And don’t forget, new HC Brian Callahan hired his father, legendary O-line coach Bill Callahan, to remediate a front five that surrendered 64 sacks in 2023, tied for most in the AFC.
8. Atlanta Falcons: OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama
The offense pretty much appears to be a turnkey operation now that Cousins is aboard to ignite it. Defensively? Not so much. The unit returns just one player, OLB Arnold Ebiketie, who had more than four sacks in 2023 – and he had all of six in his second season. Turner, Co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last season while racking up 10 sacks, may well be this draft’s premier defensive prospect.
9. Bears: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Luxury pick, you say? If he’s still on the board, the value seems exceptional. And while Keenan Allen was a sweet pickup – especially at the cost of a fourth-rounder – he’ll be 32 by Week 1, hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and isn’t under contract beyond this one. Daniels’ primary target the past two seasons in Baton Rouge, Nabers really blossomed during a 2023 All-American campaign, when he caught 89 balls for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs. Could be ideal to give him a lighter load – though it’s not like Chicago’s receiving corps is all that deep – and learn from Allen and DJ Moore before planning a heavier role in 2025.
10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
GM Joe Douglas found three new starters for his offensive line during free agency, notably new LT Tyron Smith. Now it’s time to find another downfield weapon for QB Aaron Rodgers, one who can make an immediate impact for a club clearly in win-now mode (and with a leadership team collectively fighting to remain employed in 2025). Despite being limited by an ankle injury for a good chunk of the 2023 season, Bowers, the only two-time Mackey Award winner ever, had 26 TD catches during his three-year college career and averaged nearly 60 grabs for 850 yards as the rare player at his position who could dominate a game offensively – sometimes as a ball carrier. He’d be quite a run-after-catch threat between the hashes with WR Garrett Wilson operating outside and RB Breece Hall holding defenders in the box.
11. Patriots [PROJECTED TRADE with Vikings]: OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Better not to force a quarterback here, which is also the presumption for their potential willingness to vacate the No. 3 spot. A right tackle for the Beavers, Fuaga is excellent in pass protection and especially nasty as a run blocker. He’ll be the first Round 1 O-lineman in Oregon State’s history and can probably play anywhere up front aside from center – and it would hardly be a shock if Wolf’s rebuild began in the trenches.
12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon
They were only too willing to eat Russell Wilson’s high-calorie contract, but Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci seem like a crash diet. Nix has the accuracy – yes, some of his record 77.5% completion rate in 2023 was juiced by the Ducks’ offense – coach Sean Payton values, plus a nose for the goal line (38 rushing TDs in five college seasons). And with an FBS-record 61 starts under his belt, rookie passers don’t come much more plug-and-play than Nix would.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
He’s got size (6-0, 195), blazing speed (4.33 40 time) and ball skills, two of his six interceptions over the past two seasons turned into pick-sixes. Those are classic Silver and Black traits, but it’s also where the defensive need lies after Vegas invested so heavily in DT Christian Wilkins during free agency.
14. New Orleans Saints: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
With 2022 first-round LT Trevor Penning quickly trending toward bust territory, might be time to snatch a replacement like the All-Pac-12 performer with the sweet feet. Fautanu was the Huskies’ left tackle the past two seasons but has also played guard. The Saints need to safeguard QB Derek Carr, something that didn’t happen often enough in 2023, in a division where it appears a lot more points will be needed to win in 2024.
15. Indianapolis Colts: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
DeForest Buckner just turned 30 and is entering the final year of his contract. And though he may still be near his peak, why not bolster the havoc you can create on the inside by enlisting someone like Murphy at what has arguably become the league’s most coveted defensive position. No quicker path to the likes of C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence than right up the gut.
16. Seattle Seahawks: OT JC Latham, Alabama
The All-SEC right tackle, who has experience at guard, simply helps a weak offensive line somewhere given new HC Mike Macdonald’s intent to run the ball more effectively and extensively.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers [PROJECTED TRADE with Jacksonville Jaguars]: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Somehow, they had a middle-of-the road pass defense despite the presence of T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith up front. Arnold feels like a Steel City guy – confident, productive and tough, including a willingness to tackle, even if he doesn’t possess Mitchell’s elite speed. Despite the trade for Donte Jackson, who’s got one year left on his contract, Pittsburgh still needs help at corner after saying goodbye to Patrick Peterson and others. Arnold and Joey Porter Jr. would make a nice long-term tandem.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
The 6-3, 209-pounder put down a 4.33 40 at the combine in the wake of a season when he had 1,177 yards on 68 catches – a quarter of those receptions resulting in TDs. With Tyler Boyd unsigned and franchise-tagged Tee Higgins seeking a trade, good time to find a new Robin for Cincy’s Ja’Marr Chase, a Bayou Bengal himself.
19. Los Angeles Rams: DT Johnny Newton, Illinois
You’re never going to replace Aaron Donald with one guy. Impossible. But … the Big Ten’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, who’s 6-2 and 304 pounds, is strong, fairly twitchy and kinda built like Donald. Newton could be the nice start of an AD by committee.
20. Jaguars [PROJECTED TRADE with Steelers]: DE Jared Verse, Florida State
You can never have too many athletic, bendy pass rushers in the NFL. That’s especially true if your best one (Josh Allen) is on the franchise tag while former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker is still trying to live up to that label. Verse was a first-team All-American during both of his seasons with the Seminoles, registering nine sacks in each.
21. Miami Dolphins: OL Graham Barton, Duke
A left tackle for the Blue Devils, the two-time All-ACC selection is likely headed inside in the NFL due to his relatively short arms. And the Fins could use help there after losing Connor Williams, apparently, and Robert Hunt during free agency.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
Offensive line – between the tackles – could be a consideration following C Jason Kelce’s retirement. But EVP/GM Howie Roseman knows his defense needs attention and knows starting CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry are north of 30. Rakestraw’s physical style would resonate nicely in Philly.
23. Patriots [PROJECTED TRADE with Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans and Vikings]: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
To quickly recap, this is New England’s second first-rounder as part of the Maye deal with Minnesota. (The selection also represents the final first-rounder to switch hands as part of the Browns-Texans deal involving Deshaun Watson.) And, yes, we slotted a tackle (Fuaga) to the Pats at No. 11. So? Bookending him with the Nittany Lions’ 2023 All-American – and around recently re-signed OL Mike Onwenu – would prime this offense for whenever it’s time to drop in the next franchise passer. And though Onwenu might be headed back to right tackle, per NFL Network, free agency tells you guards are just as valuable, and he’s equally reliable inside.
24. Dallas Cowboys: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
The 2023 Rimington Trophy winner as the country’s best college center, “JPJ” – who excels as a run and pass blocker – could replace departed C Tyler Biadasz or slide one spot to the left and allow LG Tyler Smith to kick out to the longtime post vacated by LT Tyron Smith. Also worth noting, RG Zack Martin is out of contract in 2025.
25. Green Bay Packers: OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
The former tight end would bring high-end potential and flexibility to a line that’s lost LT David Bakhtiari and G Jon Runyan Jr.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
The Pac-12’s defensive player of the year in 2023, when he also earned the Lombardi Award and Ted Hendricks Award for being the country’s best collegiate defensive end after posting an FBS-best 1.8 tackles for loss per game, he racked up 35 TFLs, 23½ sacks, five forced fumbles and a pair of interceptions in two seasons with the Bruins. Latu would love to reunite with Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, previously his teammate at the University of Washington, and could fill the breach left by departed Shaq Barrett.
27. Cardinals (from Texans): DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
A souped-up athlete and 2023 All-American who was named the Big Ten’s top defensive back last season, DeJean can play pretty much anywhere in the secondary – convenient for a defense that needs help throughout the back end and, perhaps, a successor for S Budda Baker fairly soon. DeJean can also help as a returner on special teams.
28. Buffalo Bills: DE Chop Robinson, Penn State
His eye-popping athleticism – the 6-3, 254-pounder ran a sub-4.5 40 at the combine – doesn’t necessarily align with his production, which included 9½ sacks and 17½ TFLs in two seasons with the Nittany Lions. But he’d replenish the depth of a Buffalo defense that lost a lot in free agency and could hone his craft under the tutelage of veteran LB Von Miller.
29. Detroit Lions: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
How about just one more playmaker for this offense? Mitchell is plenty big (6-2, 205) and exceptionally fast (4.34 40 time), a combo that could nicely complement WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who continues to struggle while trying to justify his first-round billing from 2022. A Georgia transfer, Mitchell found the end zone 11 times during his only season with the Longhorns.
30. Baltimore Ravens: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
A right tackle who already knows OC Todd Monken’s playbook, Mims’ 87-inch wingspan and 6-8, 340-pound frame help him block out the sun. He could start straight away following the trade of RT Morgan Moses to the Jets.
31: San Francisco 49ers: DL Darius Robinson, Missouri
The NFC champs need to reload a defensive front that’s lost DE Chase Young, DT Arik Armstead and primary backups like Javon Kinlaw and Clelin Ferrell. Robinson, a 6-5, 285-pound All-SEC selection, has the size and athleticism to play inside or out while thriving against the run or pass – especially if given the opportunity to develop alongside proven players like Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
It would be fun to give the champs a toy like Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who set the combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash. But there’s currently a gaping hole on QB Patrick Mahomes’ blind side. Too big a need to ignore unless LT Donovan Smith re-signs or HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach come up with an even better answer in the interim. Barring that, Morgan could be a good one.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.