Here’s a fun fact about the NCAA men’s basketball tournament: South Carolina has been to the Final Four more recently than Kentucky.
How about another? Texas Tech has played for a national championship more recently than Arizona.
OK, one more: Baylor has cut down the nets more recently than North Carolina and Duke.
There’s never been a time in the history of college basketball where being a blue blood has meant less in terms of March Madness success.
To put a finer point on it, six of the last 16 Final Four participants made their first trip to college basketball’s promised land, including programs like Florida Atlantic, Auburn and South Carolina that had almost no track record of success. Meanwhile, a large number of schools that take basketball quite seriously are in the middle of relatively long droughts or hoping to break through for the very first time.
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This year, it seems likely that at least one or more of those historically prominent programs will quench their thirst and find a way to Phoenix. Here are the eight schools most likely to break their Final Four-less streaks, ranked by the amount of heartbreak they’ve endured in pursuit of it.
1. Purdue
Last Final Four: 1980
Total Final Four appearances: 2
Notable close call: In 2019, the Boilermakers suffered one of the most brutal Elite Eight losses in tournament history. Leading Virginia 70-68 with just 5.9 seconds left, the Cavaliers tapped a missed free throw all the way back nearly to the opposite 3-point line. By the time Virginia guard Kihei Clark could track down the ball, the clock was almost expired. But he had just enough time to whip a long pass to Mamadi Diakite, whose leaning 12-footer just beat the buzzer and sent the game to overtime. Virginia advanced to the Final Four and ultimately took home the national championship.
Why now: Remarkably, Purdue has only missed the NCAA Tournament 11 times in the last 44 years. That’s an astounding amount of good basketball with no Final Fours to show for it. Purdue may never have a better chance than now, with national player of the year Zach Edey coming back to avenge last year’s brutal first-round loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson.
2. Kentucky
Last Final Four: 2015
Total Final Four appearances: 17
Notable close call: The 2017 Elite Eight matching Kentucky against North Carolina was probably the de facto national title game that year. And a Wildcats team led by De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo tied it up on a 3-pointer with 7.2 seconds left only to watch Luke Maye hit a legendary step-back jumper for the win with just fractions remaining on the clock.
Why now: After reaching four Final Fours in John Calipari’s first six years at Kentucky, this has been a pretty discouraging drought for Big Blue Nation − especially given the talent level he brings in year after year. Kentucky’s season has been uneven, but the Wildcats have a top-five offense and enough firepower from the 3-point line to beat anyone on a good day. Kentucky hasn’t been good on defense at all this season, but this team can get to Phoenix with four good shooting games. That doesn’t seem like too tall a task.
3. Arizona
Last Final Four: 2001
Total Final Four appearances: 4
Notable close call: Under Sean Miller, Arizona had the misfortune of running into Wisconsin in consecutive Elite Eights, losing 64-63 in overtime in 2014 and a close 85-78 decision the following year. That turned out to be the peak of the Miller era, as he returned to the second weekend of the tournament just once more in his next six seasons.
Why now: Arizona has been one of the tournament’s biggest underachievers in recent years, losing a 4-13 first-round matchup in 2018 and suffering the dreaded 2-15 upset against Princeton last season. This year’s Wildcats are well-balanced between offense and defense and have focused on building physical toughness that they may have lacked the last few years under Tommy Lloyd. Their X-factor is senior transfer Caleb Love, who caught fire for North Carolina two years ago during their surprising run to the championship game. If he’s on, Arizona can end a remarkable 22-year Final Four drought.
4. Tennessee
Last Final Four: Never
Total Final Four appearances: 0
Notable close call: The Vols are arguably the most historically successful program to never play on the final weekend, and remarkably they have just one Elite Eight appearance. That came in 2010 when they traded leads down the stretch with Michigan State and had a chance to pull ahead on free throws by Scott Hopson with 11 seconds left. Instead, Hopson made just 1-of-2 and the Vols got caught in transition, forcing them to foul with 1.8 seconds left to prevent a layup. Sparty advanced on the subsequent free throw.
Why now: At some point, isn’t Tennessee just due? After 26 NCAA appearances, at some point luck will surely fall on the Vols’ side. Coming off an SEC regular-season championship, this seems like their best shot in awhile. Tennessee is led by three fifth-year seniors in Dalton Knecht, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James, and their consistently excellent defense makes it very tough for opponents to score.
5. Iowa State
Last Final Four: 1944
Total Final Four appearances: 1
Notable close call: The 2000 Cyclones, led by Marcus Fizer, Jamaal Tinsley and Michael Nurse, were a Mack truck of a basketball team that rolled to Big 12 regular season and tournament titles. But they had the misfortune of running into Tom Izzo’s only national championship team in a brawl of an Elite Eight game, which finished with Michigan State scoring 23 of the game’s final 28 points to win 75-64. Iowa State coach Larry Eustachy was ejected with a handful of seconds remaining and never came close to the same level of success.
Why now: In the nation’s most competitive conference top to bottom, Iowa State distinguished itself by finishing second in the regular season with a 13-5 record and then smashing Houston 69-41 in the Big 12 tournament championship game. This is a bit of a star-less bunch − six players average between 8.0 and 13.8 points per game − but they guard as well as anyone in the country and coach T.J. Otzelberger has been as good as anyone finding pieces that fit his system in the transfer portal.
6. Illinois
Last Final Four: 2005
Total Final Four appearances: 5
Notable close call: There really isn’t one, but the Illini very much looked the part in 2021 and earned a No. 1 seed after winning the Big Ten tournament. Unfortunately, Illinois caught an awful second-round matchup against Loyola Chicago and pretty much got blown out by the Ramblers, who were far too experienced and talented to be a No. 8 seed.
Why now: According to KenPom.com, this is a top-10 team with a lot of size on the perimeter and a wide array of scorers. If Illinois does reach the Final Four, a lot of attention will be on leading scorer Terrence Shannon (22.6 ppg), who was charged with rape in December. Though initially suspended, he was reinstated after a federal judge ruled that the school had violated his civil rights and granted a preliminary injunction.
7. BYU
Last Final Four: Never
Total Final Four appearances: 0
Notable close call: Among the great what-ifs for BYU is the 2011 season when the Cougars and Jimmer Fredette were among the best teams in the country all season, only to see it fall apart the first week of March when starting forward Brandon Davis was dismissed from the team because he admitted to having premarital sex with his girlfriend, violating the school’s honor code. BYU lost in overtime to Florida in the Sweet 16.
Why now: This is BYU’s 31st all-time tournament appearance, but never have the Cougars come into March Madness this battle-tested. BYU more than held its own during its first year in the Big 12 and notched wins over Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. As a team, BYU shoots more threes than anyone in the tournament (32 attempts per game) and connects on 35 percent. That gives them the kind of offensive variance you want to see from a long shot looking to make a deep run.
8. Alabama
Last Final Four: Never
Total Final Four appearances: 0
Notable close call: The 2021 tournament laid out a primrose path for the Crimson Tide, but they couldn’t take advantage of it and lost to No. 11 seed UCLA 88-78 in overtime of the Sweet 16. Painfully for Alabama fans, Herb Jones missed 3-of-4 foul shots in the final minute of regulation.
Why now: Nate Oats has been sniffing around some deep tournament runs, but it’s going to be a real challenge with this group because of its defense. Ranking just 112th in the KenPom efficiency stats, Alabama needs its outside shooting to be elite every time it takes the floor to have a chance against quality teams. It’s not impossible, but it’s hard to do − and Alabama comes into this tournament having lost four of its last six games.