As millions of people fill out their brackets for the NCAA Tournament, let’s get one thing out of the way first.
You aren’t going to fill out a perfect bracket, so don’t even try it.
But if you are so bold and want to anyway, the odds of filling out a perfect bracket are about 1 in 9.2 quintillion (that’s nine, followed by 18 other numbers). If you do happen to get lucky and pick each of the 63 tournament games correctly, go ahead and start playing Powerball as well.
All hope is not lost; there is still a chance to win your office pool or whatever bracket challenge you have entered and look like a hero, so buckle up for the best three weeks of the year.
SELECTION SUNDAY LIVE: Read more about how Selection Sunday unfolds and where teams land in the brackets
IT’S BRACKET MADNESS: Enter USA TODAY’s NCAA tournament bracket contest for a chance at $1 million prize.
So here are a few tips to help make your bracket not look like a complete dumpster fire:
High-five
Since 2013, at least one No. 5 seed or lower has reached the Final Four, so go ahead and pencil in an underdog to make it to Phoenix.
Last year, UConn, a No. 4 seed in the West, broke a string of five straight champions that were top seeds in their region, and none of the top seeds made it to the Elite Eight. Only six times in the past 37 tournaments has a 12-seed failed to advance past the first round, including last season.
It’s madness, but let’s not get crazy
Don’t load up on chalk to improve your odds of filling out a half-decent bracket but don’t go nuts with upsets.
The 2023 tournament was an anomaly, with no No. 1 seeds in the Final Four; this was only the fourth time since the NCAA began seeding the field in 1979.
Two five-seeds (San Diego State and Miami), a No. 4 seed (UConn), and a No. 9 seed (Florida Atlantic) made the Final Four last year, so keep that in mind. If you are looking to pencil in all four No. 1 seeds for the Final Four, that’s not wise either. Only once have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four (2008: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, and Kansas).
Better off flipping a coin
You don’t have to be a basketball aficionado to win an office bracket, and even the ones who analyze and study this stuff for a living really don’t know what the hell they are doing when it comes to picking a semi-accurate bracket.
But there is nothing wrong with choosing winning teams based on color, animal mascots, or the perceived attractiveness of the athletes playing. If that’s the case, go ahead and flip a coin, and chances are that you will finish ahead of your peers in a bracket pool.
But if you want to put a little basketball knowledge in your brackets, here are a few more interesting tidbits:
Since 1985, 16 out of 38 teams that cut down the nets won their conference tournament, and only twice in the past 10 tournaments.
Pick a team with blue uniforms: Since 2004, only Louisville in 2013 and Baylor in 2021 have won the tournament without blue as a primary uniform color.
Good luck, win all the money you can, and remember the IRS will want their cut as well.