How much is a top NFL running back worth? And, more importantly, which teams are willing to pay that price?
Those questions should come into focus this offseason, as a star-studded group of ball carriers is set to hit free agency amid what continues to be a depressed market at the position. Among the notable players headed for the open market are Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard.
But perhaps the best microcosm of the running back situation is Saquon Barkley, the two-time Pro Bowler who has established himself as one of football’s premier all-purpose threats. But after he failed to land a significant long-term deal last season and instead settled for an adjusted franchise tender, he now stands as somewhat of a riddle for teams as a 27-year-old with a notable injury history and his last season featuring under 1,000 rushing yards.
While his market has still yet to take shape after he was not given the franchise tag again on Tuesday, here’s a look at nine possible landing spots for Barkley if he doesn’t return to the Giants, ranked from most sensible to least sensible:
1. Houston Texans
In a season during which the Texans exceeded expectations in almost every facet, a ground game that ranked just 29th in yards per carry (3.71) was one of the few letdowns. DeMeco Ryans vowed this offseason to address the issue, though it wasn’t clear whether that meant through a drastic personnel shift. But Devin Singletary is set to become a free agent after taking over for Dameon Pierce as the lead option, and the Texans have $70 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap. Barkley could help unlock something new in Bobby Slowik’s scintillating scheme and C.J. Stroud’s impressive development by giving the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year the added elements of a breakaway threat who can also shoulder a heavy load in the passing game. With the groundwork already set for this team to compete for years to come, Houston has the flexibility to take a flier on a high-upside talent like Barkley, even if it ends up being a relatively pricey proposition.
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2. Chicago Bears
Ryan Poles has proven he’s not afraid to throw money around in free agency, including at spots others might not prioritize. With Chicago seemingly poised to take its quarterback of the future at No. 1 in the draft with USC’s Caleb Williams as well as potentially a wide receiver at No. 9, could Barkley make for a full skill-position overhaul? Poles seems more committed than his peers to having a ferocious run game, with his choice of investments along the offensive line serving as a clear indicator. Barkley would no doubt further change the complexion of the attack, giving new coordinator Shane Waldron the explosive threat he seems to covet but would lack with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson as his top options.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Having Barkley join the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense helmed by Lamar Jackson would be something to behold. Baltimore essentially has a blank slate at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards set to become free agents and Keaton Mitchell recovering from a torn ACL suffered in December. Even though a splashy move like this wouldn’t be in keeping with the Ravens’ previous approach at the position, Barkley would be a tantalizing solution. But given how snakebitten the team’s backfield has been with injuries in recent years, could the organization really make this kind of bet for him to stay on the field?
4. New England Patriots
Jerod Mayo boasted that the Patriots are ready to ‘burn some cash’ in free agency, though he later walked back that remark in an interview with MassLive. But de facto general manager Eliot Wolf made the offseason priority clear, saying at the combine the Patriots ‘need to weaponize the offense.’ While the moribund receiving corps should be at the center of that effort, bringing on Barkley seems like a reasonable step for an organization that has more than $88 million in cap space at its disposal and could be looking for several ways to support an incoming rookie quarterback. And even if the addition won’t push the Patriots up a full tier in the AFC pecking order, any move that gets New England closer to being competitive is sure to be met with Robert Kraft’s approval.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
For whatever mysteries there are about what Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL might look like, there’s no lingering question regarding his dedication to a run-heavy approach after he reunited with offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Barkley was asked on ‘Up & Adams’ about the possibility of linking up with Harbaugh and said he ‘definitely wouldn’t be against it.’ The Bolts are still $19 million over the cap, however, and have to be more cost-conscious than many other options on this list.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Fun hypothetical to consider, though it only becomes plausible if the Bengals cut Joe Mixon. Even then, that move would seem to be a precursor to the team curbing its spending at the position rather than revving it up. If Cincinnati is only certain to have Tee Higgins for one more season, though, might it be worth some significant push to make the plodding running game more dynamic? His addition, however implausible, would be quite the way to welcome Joe Burrow back from the torn wrist ligament that prematurely ended his 2023 season.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
Doesn’t seem like it makes much sense for the Silver and Black to split with Josh Jacobs only to end up with a likely more expensive alternative. But the Raiders have made no secret about their interest in finding a young quarterback to take the reins, and Barkley could help ease some of the burden on any inexperienced passer. Still, a full-fledged backfield youth movement feels like ticket here.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
Howie Roseman is perhaps one of the least likely candidates to find himself anywhere near the upper portion of the running back market, as Philadelphia has repeatedly scrounged for ball carriers in the bargain-bin portion of free agency. Still, can this option truly be ruled out given the Eagles’ dire straits after a late-season tailspin that led to the team making changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator? Unless the market for Barkley and other backs is far worse than many have predicted, this possibility is difficult to envision – however fun it might be.
9. Dallas Cowboys
Don’t be fooled by Jerry Jones’ comment at the Senior Bowl about the Cowboys being ‘all in’ for 2024. The owner’s remark was more double speak than a pledge to engage in any sort of uncharacteristic spending sprees. Left tackle Tyron Smith’s expected exit, per multiple reports, is a reminder that Jones seldom budges from his financial stances, and it’s difficult to envision him paying up for this kind of external move. Remember, the Cowboys are currently $10 million over the cap and still have a $6 million dead cap hit for 2024 from Ezekiel Elliott’s release last March. Never say never, but Dallas seems primed to go in a much more cost-effective route to find its next primary ball carrier.