Winning H-O-R-S-E is a different matter. That depends on how hard everyone else’s shots are.
If you’ve played someone enough, you know what your friends or teammates tend to miss. So you take those shots. You hope each will lead to the misses and the letters that ultimately spell H-O-R-S-E.
But what if you’re playing Iowa basketball phenom Caitlin Clark for the first time? Where would you even start? Perhaps you’d start with a record of all her shots during the past four years?
How Caitlin Clark’s scoring has changed in college
As an experienced H-O-R-S-E player, you probably wouldn’t be encouraged by any of the charts derived from CBB Analytics data. She’s that good. But if you had a time machine, maybe? More on that soon.
If you were able to play Clark as a freshman, she probably would have been open to trying many different shots from different spots around the court. That might have been an opportunity.
Her shooting percentage then was just over 47% – essentially the same this season. But she tended to miss more than she made to the left of the free-throw line. That ‘hole’ in her shot extended back beyond the 3-point arc.
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To be sure, this is more of an exercise in potential opportunities. The holes in her shots would undoubtedly narrow significantly if she weren’t being defended by a top Division I player. But, then again, could she match your double-bank shot off the side of your house?
Sophomore year Caitlin Clark: You say there’s a chance?
If you could get access to a time machine – maybe a used DeLorean, Clark’s sophomore year might be when you want to return in her college career. Perhaps you could have hung an ‘H’ on her beyond the 3-point arc before she ultimately took you out.
In her sophomore year, Clark shot two percentage points below her average of the other three years, or just over 45%. Yes, that’s not a lot to work with, but you’re playing one of the top scorers ever in NCAA history.
It might seem odd to take on one of the game’s best 3-point shooters beyond the arc. But that’s where her sophomore year shot chart says your opportunity would be. She made a third of her 274 threes that season – about 7 percentage points below her rate in other seasons.
Time to start getting the behind-the-back shots ready
After her sophomore year, you pretty much missed your opportunity. In her junior and senior years, the holes, if you can even call them that, have become much smaller. Yes, trick shots might be your only chance, but you have to expect she’s going to have some crazy ones, too.
In her senior year, Clark’s gaps continued to narrow while her range has become remarkable. She’s made 131 3-pointers this season. Dyaisha Fair of Syracuse and Aaliyah Nye of Alabama, No. 2 and No. 3 in threes this season, are more than 40 behind Clark.
What’s also clear is how much her approach has changed since she was a freshman. As a senior, she’s either taking and making shots inside the free-throw lane or behind the 3-point line. She generally is not taking the mid-range, 15- or 20-foot shots she might have as a freshman.
What does that mean to you? She’s not messing around now. You’d might have H-O-R-S-E faster than you can spell it.
For the record: How Caitlin Clark’s senior year shot selection compares to her freshman year
So maybe the odds aren’t great. Well, they’re probably terrible. But should you get a chance to play H-O-R-S-E against Clark, why not? At least you can tell your grandkids you played against one of the greatest scorers in NCAA history.
Hmm, maybe there’s another NIL deal in there for her with a fast food company.