Super Bowl LVIII is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers. This time though, the result might be different. The 49ers still boast a tremendous defense, with cornerstones Nick Bosa and Fred Warner leading the charge. However, their offense has taken a tremendous step forward since 2020. Gone is Jimmy Garoppolo, replaced by Brock Purdy, arguably the most divisive quarterback in the NFL. Gone is Emmanuel Sanders, replaced by second-team All-Pro Brandon Aiyuk. Gone is Joe Staley, replaced by future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. And of course, you can’t overlook Christian McCaffrey.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, may have lost Tyreek Hill, but upgraded several spots on their offensive line. Their defense is also much better than what it was four years ago. Chris Jones, L’Jarius Sneed, and Nick Bolton headline one of the best units in the NFL, the first time the Chiefs have had a top-ten defense since 2015, before Mahomes was drafted.
Although most NFL fans would have preferred the Baltimore Ravens against the Detroit Lions, this matchup should provide another classic that will either confirm the Chiefs’ dynasty or have a Mr. Irrelevant hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Here are our favorite player prop bets with less than two weeks to go until the game. Odds via BetMGM.
Best Super Bowl LVIII player prop bets
Rashee Rice OVER 6.5 receptions (-105)
The Kansas City Chiefs only really have two solid options in their passing attack: Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. While Travis Kelce may have been the star in the AFC Championship against Baltimore, Rice still quietly put up eight receptions. Whether it’s quick screens to the outside, slants, or just someone that Mahomes can trust to come down with the ball, Rice is the man for the job.
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Rice has recorded seven or more receptions in six of the Chiefs’ last nine games. Even better, the Chiefs game plan against San Francisco will likely be very similar to their plan against Baltimore — control time of possession, take short yardage gains, keep Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense off the field. With that strategy, Mahomes looked often to his guys in short yardage situations. Rice had eight receptions, but only for 46 yards.
In any situation – either the Chiefs are winning and trying to hold on, or the 49ers are winning and the Chiefs need to come back – Rice should be the recipient of several targets from Mahomes.
Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115)
Brock Prudy is fresh off a 48-yard rushing performance in the NFC championship game against Detroit. Some of the most pivotal plays in the game were made with his legs, but Purdy is not a mobile quarterback. He is not someone who can consistently make big plays with his legs. That’s why this line feels like a trap. Given everything we just saw, all signs point to Purdy being able to get at least 13 yards on the ground, right? Actually, yeah.
While a normal person might look at Purdy’s game-changing rushing plays and think the Chiefs will try to limit his impact on the ground, the Chiefs likely realize that Purdy averages over 21 rushing yards per game when the 49ers lose. Purdy only ever really takes off when his team is down, and that’s what the Chiefs want. With more than a week to prepare for the Super Bowl, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid should put together a master class coming out the gate. Reid is notoriously one of the best head coaches ever when coming off a bye.
If the Chiefs get the lead early, then Purdy will be in a position to run the ball more often, and that’s good for anyone looking for the over on Purdy rushing yards.
Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl MVP (+450)
As talented as Brock Purdy is, Christian McCaffrey is more likely to have a big day on the ground than Purdy is to dominate through the air. If the 49ers win the game, McCaffrey will likely have at least one touchdown on the day, potentially two or three, and more than 100 total yards.
The Chiefs have been a great rushing defense all season, but McCaffrey can do damage through the air as well. Given that the odds for Purdy (+220) and Mahomes (+125) are so high, McCaffrey seems like a steal as the obvious third option.
Sure, a running back hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP since 1998, but McCaffrey is more than a running back. He’s arguably the most talented running back to play in the Super Bowl since Marshawn Lynch, and you can bet Kyle Shanahan will hand McCaffrey the ball in crunch time should the game come down to it.