As the NFL postseason progresses from the wild-card round to this weekend’s divisional games, the wheat is separating from the chaff – and this is certainly true from a quarterbacking perspective. This year could also mark a turning point in the league’s history, given not only the fresh blood at the game’s – and arguably team sports’ – most important position but also the sterling silver opportunity at hand. (And the playoff crucible definitely didn’t look too hot for newcomers C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love in their postseason debuts.)
“When we’ve needed it most, I feel like just throughout the entire season, and now in this moment, he’s the leader we need him to be,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said of Stroud earlier this week.
“He’s the player that we need him to be. His demeanor on the field, off the field, is exactly what you want out of a starting quarterback.”
And it’s also what the NFL wants and needs following the departure of so many established field generals in recent offseasons.
Tom Brady took his seven rings with him into retirement last year, underscoring the current lack of championship experience among the league’s quarterback fraternity. His departure left five active quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl – and a combined six times. Two of those QB1s, the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford and Cleveland Browns’ Joe Flacco bowed out of the running for another ‘chip’ on wild-card weekend, joining Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson as observers of the 2023 playoffs the rest of the way.
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So that leaves seven quarterbacks with a shot to join two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes behind that velvet rope as Super Bowl 58 draws ever nearer. And all of them are currently playing extremely well, none you’d necessarily count out the way you might have Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph or Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa prior to the wild-card round given their personal or collective circumstances going into the playoff openers.
So which of the eight quarterbacks playing this weekend engenders the most championship faith? The least, relative to their counterparts anyway? Here’s our confidence meter, ranked highest to lowest, heading into the playoff quarterfinals:
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Sure, you have to acknowledge that the 2023 season was his worst statistically since becoming a starter in 2018 – his record (10-6), touchdown percentage (4.5%), yards per game (261.4) and passer rating (92.6) all career worsts while his 14 interceptions are the most he’s ever thrown. Still, Mahomes was able to put together a Pro Bowl season despite the dearth of experience (and wealth of drops) among his wideouts along with TE Travis Kelce having a subpar year – at least relative to his ridiculously lofty bar. Yet Mahomes looked pretty good (262 yards, TD) in subzero temperatures against the Dolphins last weekend while running his all-time playoff record to 12-3. He’s also about to catch the Bills with two additional days of rest and at a time when Buffalo is likely fielding a patchwork linebacking group. Sunday will be Mahomes’ first-ever playoff game on the road, Super Bowls classified as neutral sites, but he’s 2-0 in the postseason against the Bills and with gaudy numbers to boot (351.5 passing yards per game, 6 TD passes, 0 INTs, 75.6% completion rate, 125.2 QB rating). This may not be the greatest Chiefs squad Mahomes has ever played for, though it surely is defensively – that factor plus his experience making it virtually impossible to trust any of these other quarterbacks more.
2. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
From an efficiency standpoint – and he’s only played in 28 NFL games, including playoffs – he’s off to a historically good start with a 111.3 career passer rating. Purdy was exceptionally surgical in 2023, leading the league with a 113.0 mark. Like anyone, he has the occasional clunker, notably his four-pick debacle against the Ravens on Christmas night. But Purdy wouldn’t face Baltimore again before the Super Bowl, and he should have his entire supporting cast at his disposal – also a key indicator he’ll perform at optimum capability, as he did in last year’s postseason before being injured early in the NFC title game at Philadelphia. Purdy will be facing a Packers coaching staff well versed in what the 49ers like to do schematically. But Kyle Shanahan’s offense is operating arguably at its highest stratum in the coach’s seven seasons, and the primary players (Purdy included) have been able to focus on body maintenance and self-scouting most of the past three weeks, even while Shanahan ran some intense practices during the bye week. If rust has been sidestepped, Purdy and Co. should be primed to bust some heads.
3. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Don’t misconstrue this as a hot take that a team which won nine regular-season games is about to go all the way. But let’s credit Mayfield, who isn’t the big question mark here, either. He’s been dealing in big games, typically well, going back to his time at the University of Oklahoma. Monday night’s precision performance against the Eagles (337 yards, 3 TDs) – and, yes, the Eagles “defense” helped – upped Mayfield’s playoff record to 2-1. He’d be undefeated had the Browns gotten a break or two in their divisional loss at Kansas City three years ago. Nevertheless, Mayfield has a 102.7 passer rating in postseason, including a 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. And on the heels of his best NFL campaign, he and the Bucs are playing with house money – and certainly good enough to continue cashing in as they head to Detroit’s Ford Field.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The AFC East champions are undefeated when he doesn’t turn the ball over this season … unfortunately that’s only included four games, though Monday’s wild-card win over Pittsburgh was one of them – Allen throwing for three TDs and sprinting 52 yards for another. His 22 giveaways in 2023 paced the AFC, his 18 picks the most of his career. Yet there’s always that very notable other side of the coin with Allen, and that meant a league-high 44 TDs produced (29 passing, 15 rushing) during the regular season. But he’s not easy to trust given his mistakes essentially render the Bills average – Buffalo going 8-6 in 2023 when he turned the ball over. His 4-4 playoff record breaks down to 3-1 when he’s turnover free, but 1-3 otherwise. Allen is a microcosm of this franchise in recent years, so often on the cusp of elite status but just never able to get over the Lombardi Trophy hump. But taking down Mahomes and Co. for the first time in postseason Sunday afternoon could be quite the springboard.
5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Aside from Mahomes, he’s the only other quarterback left in the field who’s played on Super Sunday – though Goff’s disappointing showing in Super Bowl 53 helped lead the Rams to trade him for Stafford two years later. And don’t forget, Los Angeles HC Sean McVay even opted to start John Wolford over Goff in a playoff game three years ago. Yet Goff wound up relieving injured Wolford in that wild-card game at Seattle and played quite well off the bench in a victory. And he’s gotten increasingly better from that point forward, notably in Sunday night’s defeat of his old LA buddies, when he connected on 22 of 27 attempts for 277 yards and a TD. Beating McVay and Stafford had to feel like personal vindication for Goff, much as he tried to downplay it. Will facing the Bucs allow him to play even freer? Or could a letdown set in? Goff wasn’t exactly consistent week to week in 2023, but he was fantastic at Tampa in Week 6 (353 yards, 2 TDs). He’s got a great shot to lead the Lions to just their second NFC championship game, though it remains to be seen if he can sustain a heater that carries them to their first Super Bowl.
6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
He’s almost certainly about to add a second MVP award to his trophy case, thanks in large part to his development as a passer this season, when Jackson hasn’t been so quick to bolt the pocket. Yet make no mistake, he’s still lethal on the move, his 821 rushing yards pacing all quarterbacks in 2023 … even if it’s only the third-highest total of his six-year career. Of course the crux of the issue with Jackson has been his inability to deliver in postseason, the signal-caller prevailing in just one of his four starts and never advancing beyond the divisional round. The last time the Ravens were the AFC’s top seed – 2019, when Jackson won his first MVP – they were blown out 28-12 at home by Tennessee. The demise of that 14-2 team, one of the best statistically in NFL history, wasn’t solely the responsibility of Jackson – but his limitations as a passer were exposed that night. In four postseason starts, he’s completed 55.9% of his throws with a rating of 68.3, far below his regular-season marks (64.5% and 98.0, respectively). Jackson has only produced four playoff TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) against seven turnovers (5 INTs, 2 fumbles). Time to find out if his progression this season translates to the league’s second season.
7. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Could he have looked more comfortable taking Dallas’ vaunted D apart Sunday, completing 16 of 21 throws for 272 yards and three TDs? His 157.2 passer rating was a playoff record for the Pack … and they’ve had some decent guys behind center over the years. And lately, Love appears as if he’s destined to add his name to the Herber-Starr-Favre-Rodgers lineage. He’s been nearly flawless over the past nine games (seven of them Green Bay wins), passing for 21 TDs against one INT with a completion rate of 71% and QB rating of 116.6. And, unlike Rodgers last season, Love seems perfectly in sync with HC Matt LaFleur and the Pack’s young corps of pass catchers, whether dropping the ball in the bucket to wide-open targets or rifling it into the end zone to “covered” ones. Like Purdy, he’ll have to overcome the fact that San Francisco’s D knows what’s coming – the Niners trying to eliminate Green Bay for the third time in five seasons.
8. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Through one week of playoffs, he’s tied with Love as the NFL’s top-rated passer at 157.2. No quarterback has been drafted earlier – second overall in Stroud’s case – yet won a playoff game as a rookie. And he was magnificent in a 45-14 dissection of Cleveland and its top-ranked defense, passing for a playoff rookie record three TDs while connecting on 16 of 21 throws for 274 yards – Stroud becoming the youngest (22 years, 102 days) quarterback ever to win a postseason game. Yet the sample size is one. Saturday, Stroud will experience playoff football on the road for the first time – 19 weeks after his NFL debut in Baltimore, when he passed for 242 yards in a 25-9 loss … for whatever that’s worth now. He throws a beautiful ball, hangs in the pocket on deep drops and rarely turns it over. And if he continues playing without fear, why couldn’t he beat the Ravens and a defense that surrendered the fewest points in the league this season and take the Texans to their first AFC championship game?
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.