Florida State’s drop out of the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings on the final weekend of the regular season will go down as one of the biggest controversies in college football history, for obvious reasons.
But while omitting the unbeaten Seminoles from the national semifinals has drawn widespread scorn, the committee can justify that decision by pointing to the makeup of a starstudded playoff that features the four hottest teams in the country in Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama.
It will be Michigan and Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Washington and Texas will face off in the Sugar Bowl. This is the third playoff appearance in a row for the Wolverines, the eighth overall for Alabama, the second for Washington and the Longhorns’ playoff debut.
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The playoff will unfold against the backdrop of the contentious decision to leave out Florida State. That outcry could reach an even more feverish pitch should the Seminoles beat Georgia in the Orange Bowl. On the field, however, this could be the most unpredictable playoff of the four-team era, which each team genuinely capable of winning two games in January to capture the national championship.
Keys to Michigan and Alabama in the Rose Bowl
Michigan has asserted its will on teams as good as Ohio State and Penn State. Whether the Wolverines can do the same against Alabama is by far the biggest key to determining the Rose Bowl.
One thing that you can assume: Michigan would rather play Florida State.
Alabama has been on a tear since losing to Texas and struggling against South Florida in September. The Crimson Tide have drawn strong play from quarterback Jalen Milroe and made huge strides on defense these past two months, culminating in a win against Georgia that might help reestablish the Tide as the premier program in the FBS.
What Alabama has developed is a sense of explosiveness on offense. Milroe has been particularly strong in the downfield passing game and helped the Tide rank ninth nationally in plays gaining 30 or more yards. They’ll have to keep that up against the Wolverines, who rank second nationally in first downs allowed per game and typically make teams churn out long drives that tend to run out steam outside the red zone.
Boiled down, Michigan is a throwback team that looks to control games from the inside out, beginning with complete dominance of the space from one offensive guard to the other. Defensively, the Wolverines have the scheme and personnel to clamp down on the Crimson Tide and make this a low-scoring game.
There’s also something to be said about Alabama’s defense, which has turned a real corner since struggling to get stops against Jayden Daniels and LSU in early November. The Tide’s last four opponents have averaged 4.9 yards per play, with no team gaining more than 337 yards, while Georgia’s 78 rushing yards on Saturday were the Bulldogs’ fewest in a game since the 2021 Peach Bowl.
Keys to Washington and Texas in the Sugar Bowl
The Longhorns are playing as well as any team in the country and are surging into postseason play, one of the hallmarks of playoff-era national champions.
The same can be said of quarterback Quinn Ewers, who threw for more than 450 yards with four touchdowns in Saturday’s win against Oklahoma State and is beginning to tap into the potential that made him one of the top recruits of the modern era.
Washington has played close game after close game throughout the regular season, which could be viewed as a major advantage in this setting − teams that continue to find ways to win often continue to find ways to win, you know − or a sign that the Huskies may be overmatched on this stage.
But then you look at the two wins against Oregon. To not take Washington seriously as a team that can beat Texas and then beat one of Alabama or Michigan for the national championship simply ignores all that the Huskies bring to the table and all they’ve achieved during a prefect regular season.
The key may be quarterback play and other surrounding factors, namely how each team protects the passer and how each secondary will match up with two talented receiver corps. The latter point is a bigger issue for Texas, which must run with Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillen or potentially get buried by the most potent passing game in the country.
Predicting the college football playoff semifinals
Rose Bowl
Michigan can definitely beat you on the ground and probably can beat you through the air, though J.J. McCarthy has thrown just one touchdown pass since the start of November.
Alabama might just be a team of destiny. But let’s not forget how close the Tide came to being eliminated from the playoff against Auburn before being bailed out by Milroe’s miraculous touchdown pass.
The bottom line of the Rose Bowl is that Michigan will try to suffocate Alabama, and it’s on the Crimson Tide to show they can stand up against the Wolverines’ physicality and strength on both lines. If they can do so, Milroe and the Tide should be able to manufacture enough on offense to come away with the win.
Prediction: Alabama 21, Michigan 17.
Sugar Bowl
The Sugar Bowl is more likely to end up a shootout. Washington ranks fifth nationally in yards per play and gained at least 400 yards in seven of eight games against bowl competition. Texas ranks ninth in yards per game and really turned things on late, scoring a combined 106 points in wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
While far from guaranteed, a high-scoring affair would become a high-profile matchup of two elite quarterbacks. That’s a position of comfort for both teams, especially given the way Ewers has played since missing two games to injury in late October and early November.
But there’s one thing that separates these two teams: the running game. Both are solid on the ground, Texas more so, but the Longhorns are among the best in the country in stopping the run. It’s easy to envision a scenario where they establish things on the ground and make the Huskies one-dimensional offensively.
Prediction: Texas 37, Washington 24.