Thanksgiving is more than family gatherings, big dinners and NFL tripleheaders. It’s a time when NHL teams have a good feel whether they’ll make the playoffs.
From the start of the salary cap era in 2005 until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 75% of the teams that were in a playoff position on Thanksgiving ended up making the playoffs that season. That continued in the last two full NHL seasons with four non-playoff-positioned teams ending up in the playoffs in 2021-22 and three making it last season.
There have been notable comebacks, especially the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues. They were last in the Central Division at Thanksgiving and last overall on Jan. 2 before winning the Stanley Cup, thanks to a coaching change and the arrival of goalie Jordan Binnington.
Here are the standings at Thanksgiving, with an analysis of whether a team will make the playoffs:
Eastern Conference
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
New York Rangers (13-3-1): Artemi Panarin is surging, Alexis Lafreniere is breaking out and Adam Fox could come back soon. Prediction: Playoff team.
Washington Capitals (10-4-2): New coach Spencer Carbery keeps this team winning even though Alex Ovechkin has started slowly, T.J. Oshie just got his first goal of the season, the power play is struggling and Nicklas Backstrom has taken a leave of absence to address his hip issues. Prediction: 50-50 playoff team.
Carolina Hurricanes (11-7-0): They’re rebounding from a slow start. A Rod Brind’Amour-coached team isn’t likely to miss the postseason. Prediction: Playoff team.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston Bruins (14-1-3): They’re around the same pace as their record-setting 2022-23 season despite the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Having David Pastrnak, strong defense and goaltending helps. Prediction: Playoff team.
Florida Panthers (12-6-1): They thrived despite missing defensemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad for a month. Their return makes the 2021-22 Presidents’ Trophy winners and 2022-23 Stanley Cup finalists even stronger. They’re rumored to be in the Patrick Kane sweepstakes. Prediction: Playoff team.
Tampa Bay Lightning (9-6-5): They’re in a playoff spot with goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy getting close to returning from back surgery. If he’s anywhere close to form, the Lightning will take off. Prediction: Likely playoff team.
WILD CARDS
Toronto Maple Leafs (10-5-2): William Nylander’s hot start will earn him a big raise. The team defense needs to be better. Prediction: Playoff team.
Detroit Red Wings (9-6-3): They started strong but began fading. Getting only one point in Sweden didn’t help but they looked good beating the Devils in their first game back. Prediction: Could drop out.
THE REST
Philadelphia Flyers (10-8-1): They’re healthier this season, so they might avoid last season’s slumps. But this team is still rebuilding and GM Danny Briere might be unwilling to be aggressive at the trade deadline, unlike his rivals. Prediction: 50-50 playoff team.
New York Islanders (7-6-5): The Islanders stood pat last summer and their offense is near the bottom of the league. Vezina Trophy finalist Ilya Sorokin hasn’t been as strong as last season, though he put together a solid game on Wednesday. Prediction: Likely lottery team unless Sorokin puts together a streak.
Pittsburgh Penguins (9-9-0): Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are thriving and newcomer Erik Karlsson has been as advertised. But the power play is subpar and they’re starting to deal with injury issues. Prediction: 50-50 playoff team.
Buffalo Sabres (8-9-2): The Sabres hope to end their 12-year playoff drought, but Tage Thompson is injured and none of their three goalies has claimed the No. 1 spot. Prediction: Likely lottery team.
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Montreal Canadiens (8-9-2): They have some good younger players, but they’re continuing to rebuild and will be trade deadline sellers. Prediction: Lottery team.
New Jersey Devils (8-8-1): They’ve been hurt by major injuries and inconsistent goaltending. But Jack Hughes is back and Nico Hischier has resumed practice: Prediction: Playoff team if they can turn it around soon.
Ottawa Senators (8-7-0): They have plenty of talent, have games in hand and are playing better after a slow start. Prediction: Will challenge for a playoff spot, might fall short.
Columbus Blue Jackets (5-11-4): Patrik Laine was a healthy scratch, Johnny Gaudreau has been benched, Damon Severson is hurt and they gave up a 2-on-0 shorthanded goal. Prediction: Lottery team.
Western Conference
CENTRAL DIVISION
Dallas Stars (12-4-2): They can get scoring from their top three lines and play a strong defensive game. Prediction: Playoff team.
Colorado Avalanche (12-6-0): They have plenty of wins and some ugly losses. The 2022 champions are contenders, even if the Tomas Tatar and Jonathan Drouin signings have yet to pay off. Do they try to sign Kane? Prediction: Playoff team.
Winnipeg Jets (11-5-2): The signings of Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck before training camp eliminated distractions. Those two and Kyle Connor are off to impressive starts. Prediction: Playoff team.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Vegas Golden Knights: (14-4-2): No Stanley Cup hangover. The Golden Knights lead the Western Conference. Prediction: Playoff team.
Vancouver Canucks (13-6-1): Quinn Hughes has a chance to win both the Norris Trophy and Hart Trophy if he keeps up this pace. Prediction: Playoff team.
Los Angeles Kings (11-3-3): Forward Quinton Byfield is having a breakout in his third season. Veteran goalie Cam Talbot is thriving on a one-year, $1 million contract and the team is 8-0 on the road. Prediction: Playoff team.
WILD CARD
St. Louis Blues (10-7-1): Which team are they? The one that beat the Avalanche (8-2) and Lightning (5-0) in back-to-back games or the one that followed that up with a 5-1 loss to the last-place Sharks? Prediction: Could drop out.
Seattle Kraken (8-8-5): Last year’s surprise team has rediscovered its offense after struggling to find goals. Prediction: Playoff team.
THE REST
Anaheim Ducks (9-10-0): Great young talent, especially Mason McTavish, and recently added veterans. But a four-game losing streak shows they’re not ready to go from last overall to a playoff spot. Prediction: Likely lottery team.
Arizona Coyotes (8-9-2): They made a big jump last season. A three-game losing streak has dropped them below .500. Prediction: Likely lottery team.
Calgary Flames (7-9-3): The Flames could be major sellers if they look like they won’t make the playoffs: Prediction: Lottery team.
Nashville Predators (8-10-0): They have been inconsistent but have won three in a row after a four-game losing streak. Prediction: Will push for a playoff spot.
Minnesota Wild: (5-8-4): Their numbers are down across the board from last season’s 103-point team and they have the league’s worst penalty kill. Prediction: Lottery team.
Edmonton Oilers (5-12-1): A true disappointment. Touted by some as a potential Stanley Cup champion, they have struggled. Jack Campbell was demoted, there was a coaching change and it hasn’t changed their fortunes. They need to trade for a goalie to have any chance. Prediction: Lottery team.
Chicago Blackhawks (5-12-0): Rookie Connor Bedard has been as advertised, but the team lacks depth. Prediction: Lottery team.
San Jose Sharks (3-15-1): The number of blowout losses might have been a surprise, but this team is right where it should be. Prediction: Lottery team.