There are two weeks to go in the regular season and over 100 scenarios for determining which two teams will play in the Big 12 championship game.
Get used to it. Looking ahead, the increased size of leagues in the Power Five and the removal of divisions will increase the need for tiebreakers to determine which teams play for the conference crown, especially given the odds of more than two teams tied atop the standings at the end of the regular season and the likelihood that not all of those teams will have played each other.
While the Big 12 could even have a four-way tie after Saturday, we already know which teams will face off to decide the ACC and SEC. Half of the pairings in the Big Ten and Pac-12 are decided. At stake at the top of every league is a spot in the College Football Playoff.
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Here’s how things look across the Power Five:
ACC
No. 9 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State (in Charlotte), Dec. 2 (8 p.m. ET, ABC).
Louisville clinched an appearance in the ACC championship game after last week’s win against Miami, officially making coach Jeff Brohm’s debut season one of the most memorable in program history. The Seminoles will try to reach the playoff without quarterback Jordan Travis, who will miss the rest of the season after being injured in last weekend’s win against North Alabama. While Louisville is a long shot to reach the playoff even as the one-loss ACC champions, Florida State would be difficult to omit from the top four as the unbeaten winner of a Power Five league.
Big 12
No. 7 Texas OR No. 13 Oklahoma OR No. 20 Kansas State OR No. 21 Oklahoma State (in Arlington, Texas), Dec. 2 (noon ET, ABC).
Yeah, the Big 12 is an absolute mess. Such a mess, actually, that the conference issued one series of tiebreakers back in August and then needed to rewrite the guidelines earlier this month. Now, in the event of a three-way tie for second place, ‘head-to-head wins takes precedence.’ That’s good news for the Cowboys, owners of wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma.
Texas can lock down a place in the conference championship as the top seed with a win on Saturday against Texas Tech. The Longhorns can also secure a spot with a loss if Oklahoma State loses to Brigham Young or if all three of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State win − the Sooners face TCU and the Wildcats host Iowa State.
With head-to-head tiebreakers in hand, Oklahoma State has four ways to reach the championship game. One, by beating BYU along with a Texas win. Two, with a win and losses by the Longhorns and Wildcats. Three, with a loss to BYU and wins by the Longhorns and Sooners. And four, with a loss to BYU and losses by OU and KSU.
Oklahoma can get in by beating TCU and with a loss by rival Oklahoma State, or by beating TCU along with losses by Texas and Kansas State. Like the Sooners, the Wildcats can only play for another conference crown with a win against Iowa State. With a win, they’d either need Oklahoma State or Oklahoma to lose or just Texas to lose.
Now, there’s a situation where there are three or even four teams tied at 7-2 in the final conference standings. In a statement attempting to clarify how things could unfold, the Big 12 admitted that ‘multiple scenarios exist in this circumstance contingent on which teams remain in the tiebreaker pool.’ This could get messy.
Big Ten
No. 2 Ohio State OR No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 19 Iowa (in Indianapolis), Dec. 2 (8 p.m. ET, Fox).
Iowa will play for the Big Ten championship for the second time in three years and the third time since 2015. The opponent will be either the Buckeyes or Wolverines depending on the score in Ann Arbor.
Pac-12
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 6 Oregon OR No. 16 Arizona (in Las Vegas), Dec. 1 (8 p.m. ET, ABC).
Washington is locked in as the top seed. Oregon and Arizona did not play this season, removing head-to-head result as the tiebreaker. But the Ducks would draw the rematch with the Huskies by beating Oregon State in the Civil War. Arizona finishes second with a win against Arizona State and an Oregon loss, since the second tiebreaker compares each team’s result against common opponents with the best conference record. That would be the Beavers, who the Wildcats beat earlier this season.
SEC
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama (in Atlanta), Dec. 2 (4 p.m. ET, CBS).
The two dynasties will meet for the third time in two seasons and for the fourth time in the SEC championship game, with Alabama taking each of the previous three meetings. The Crimson Tide would make the playoff with a win, but whether Georgia would make the cut with a loss depends on what happens elsewhere.