The latest College Football Playoff rankings show how the race for the national semifinals has coalesced around eight teams representing each of the Power Five conferences.
In the SEC, there’s both No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama, with the two prepared to match wits once again in the SEC championship game early next month. Over in the Big Ten, there’s No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan, rivals set to meet on Saturday in Ann Arbor.
There are another two teams in the mix from the Pac-12 in No. 4 Washington and No. 6 Oregon, with the Ducks looking to secure a rematch in the conference championship with a win this weekend against Oregon State. The Big 12 has just one contender, No. 7 Texas, but the Longhorns’ case as the one-loss conference champions would be difficult to ignore thanks to September’s non-conference win at Alabama. And in the ACC, No. 5 Florida State hopes to put up style points against Florida and No. 9 Louisville to offset any concerns the committee might have about the Seminoles’ chances without quarterback Jordan Travis.
Something has to give with just two weeks until the end of the regular season. Here are the winners and losers from Tuesday’s playoff rankings:
Winners
Washington
There’s a feeling that Washington’s bump to No. 5 is overdue given its résumé of wins in one of the top leagues in the Bowl Subdivision, led by a win against Oregon that the committee has viewed all year as the best by any team in the country. Winning 22-20 at No. 16 Oregon State was enough to warrant a swap with Florida State. This is big news for the Huskies, who can add a win against Washington State and potentially a second against the Ducks to solidify a top-four finish. Merely winning the Apple Cup would push Washington to No. 3 given this weekend’s matchup in the Big Ten.
Liberty
Landing at No. 25 means the Flames are a legitimate contender for the Group of Five bid despite a paltry schedule devoid of anything resembling a meaningful win. Even still, Liberty sits just two spots behind No. 23 Tulane and is a clear option for the top spot in the Group of Five with wins against Texas-El Paso and New Mexico State to end the year, the latter in the Conference USA championship game. It may be hard to close the gap: Tulane closes against Texas-San Antonio and, with a likely win against SMU to decide the American Athletic. Both victories would move the needle way more than anything Liberty has done or could add these next two weeks. There’s also the fact that SMU could easily vault in front of the Flames by beating Navy on Saturday and then winning the conference title. But Liberty is in the mix and can focus on taking care of business and finishing unbeaten.
Losers
Florida State
The big question will be addressed for good in another week and change: How will the committee view Florida State without Travis? The only thing the Seminoles can do is handle things against Florida and Louisville, and hopefully do so with enough flash to win over members of the committee who could look at Florida State and wonder about its ability to win against another elite team in a playoff setting. That the Seminoles were jumped by Washington is worrisome but not fatal, basically — Florida State might need some help from Georgia against Alabama to keep the Tide out of the mix, but there’s still a good chance at the top four with a 13-0 mark.
Alabama
Not because Alabama isn’t rolling after a sluggish start in September. Not because the Crimson Tide can’t beat Georgia early next month and get back into the playoff, because they clearly can. But there’s some history that simply isn’t on Alabama’s side: No team that has been ranked lower than No. 7 in the playoff rankings with two weeks left until the postseason has ever reached the national semifinals. The No. 8 Tide will have to buck this trend to try and capture Nick Saban’s eighth national title and first since 2020.