The U.S. government will release its latest report on consumer prices Tuesday morning, and experts think it will show that inflation is continuing to slow down.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal think the Bureau of Labor Statistics report will show that prices rose 0.1% compared to September, and 3.3% compared to October 2022.
Core prices, which exclude food and energy prices because they can be highly volatile, are expected to rise 0.3% from September, and 4.1% compared to October 2022.
In September, overall prices rose 0.2% from the month before, and 3.7% over the previous 12 months.
The report will be a major factor in the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates. The central U.S. bank will meet for the final time this year Dec. 12 and 13.
Based on options market data, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool predicts the Fed will leave interest rates where they are, in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The central bank also left rates alone in September and October after a series of steep increases throughout 2022 and early this year.
EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco wrote last week that overall prices may have even decreased slightly from September to October compared to the month before because gasoline prices fell sharply.
‘A moderate 0.3% m/m in core CPI (excluding food and energy) was offset by a significant 3% decline in energy prices driven by a plunge in gasoline prices,’ he said.
Officials including Fed Chair Jerome Powell have suggested that the central bank is comfortable with the progress it has made in reducing inflation so far. U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1% annually in June 2022, so it has slowed significantly even though it remains well above the 2% rate the Fed says it wants to achieve.