And while that might seem like a huge plus for the lowly Arizona Cardinals – and probably, in fact, is – the quarterback’s return is also likely to present quite the dilemma over the remainder of the 2023 season … and perhaps deep into the 2024 offseason.
Murray, activated to the 53-man roster Tuesday – deemed fit to play 11 months after he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament – rejoins a team with the league’s worst record (1-8), second-worst passing offense (162.7 yards per game), a battered O-line and coming off a 27-0 loss at Cleveland, where the Cards managed 58 total yards after rookie Clayton Tune was forced into the lineup following the trade of primary backup Joshua Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings.
What’s next?
“No incomplete passes and five to eight touchdowns a game,” first-year Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who’s never called a game with Murray on the field, said Tuesday regarding his expectations.
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Good luck with that, K1.
Petzing’s remark was clearly made tongue-in-cheek, but it also cuts to the Cardinals’ conundrum for the rest of the season.
Murray – the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year and a two-time Pro Bowler who’s armed with a five-year, $230.5 million contract – is undoubtedly the face of this franchise. He’s expected to lift all boats, even coming off major surgery – and even if Petzing’s offense forces him into uncomfortable situations, specifically removing Murray from his preferred shotgun formation.
“Decision-making, in and out of the huddle, communication with me, communication with his teammates, making sure that his feet are comfortable, his eyes are in the right place and the ball is going where it needs to go,” Petzing answered when asked what he wants to see from Murray, whose 2023 debut will come Sunday at home against the Atlanta Falcons and their sixth-ranked defense – assuming he has no setbacks in practice this week.
“I think that’s going to be a big part of getting his feet back under him as he starts to play at full speed.”
So really … what’s next?
Can Murray really be expected to reach “full speed” this season? Mobility has always been a huge component of his game, and most players don’t feel like they’re fully over an ACL reconstruction until the season following their return. And it’s not like the Cardinals are going anywhere this year – their four remaining home games, save maybe against the Rams, pitting them with NFC teams vying for playoff positioning. Three of their four remaining road matchups are in cold-weather sites.
And if Murray, who’s lost four consecutive starts and 12 of his past 16, flops – and the team effectively tanks – is that a bad thing holistically?
The Cardinals are currently positioned to pick first overall in the 2024 draft – a selection that would confer the opportunity to take 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams of USC, a highly regarded quarterback who’s drawn (fairly or not) comparisons to two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. It’s a scenario that’s a bit of a callback to 2019, when Arizona drafted Murray, also a Heisman winner, first overall – a year after taking UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen with the 10th pick. It was a justifiable decision given Murray’s immense talent and the opportunity to deploy him in then-coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, one that seemed tailor-made to Murray’s multi-dimensional talents.
If the Cards stay in the top spot, totally feasible that history repeats itself – particularly since Williams would arrive to a rebuilding organization with five seasons of contractual control on a relatively cheap rookie deal. However the flip side of that script is worse than 2019, when Arizona had to dump Rosen for a second- and fifth-rounder (even if that looks like a pretty good payout in retrospect). But offloading Murray could be much dicier, starting with the fact it’s unlikely he would have performed well if the Cardinals wind up with the No. 1 pick. Greatly complicating matters is the $35.3 million guarantee he’s owed in 2024 and the $46.2 million cap hit Arizona would incur to deal him – and it’s not as if rookie general manager Monti Ossenfort would be in a position to demand premium draft picks and/or players if Murray is carrying a “damaged goods” label in addition to his massive contract. And cutting him is virtually a non-starter, such a resort triggering a dead cap hit of more than $81 million.
The alternate universe is just as promising … and messy.
Murray seemed to be in a steady regression since a damaging playoff loss to the Rams at the end of the 2021 season. He was a less effective player, and his leadership skills and dedication to his craft – or lack thereof – were seemingly a constant source of fodder in the media and Arizona’s locker room. Yet if he’s able to rebound under Petzing and first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon, then the Cardinals might rest assured that they have the franchise quarterback they’ve already invested so heavily in.
Yet a revitalized Murray means Ossenfort and the Cards aren’t picking first overall. And just a few months ago, there was some speculation they might have the first two selections in 2024 given they also possess the Texans’ first-rounder – one that’s value continues to diminish as rookie Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud’s play continues to ascend.
Should be quite a show in the desert for some portion of the next six months, whether it’s on the field or off. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it almost certainly can’t be both.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.