It’s only appropriate that the first head coaching casualty of the 2023 NFL season occurred on Halloween – and on the premises of the franchise with the league’s most sinister mien.
Late Tuesday night, the Las Vegas Raiders announced the firing of Josh McDaniels, his second HC job ending like his first with the Denver Broncos – midway through his second season. And he wasn’t alone, owner Mark Davis also sweeping out a front office that had been led by general manager Dave Ziegler.
‘After much thought about what the Raiders need to move forward, I have decided to part ways with Josh and Dave,’ Davis said in a statement. ‘I want to thank them both for their hard work and wish them and their families nothing but the best.’
The timing – after hours and following the expiration of the NFL’s annual trade deadline – was shocking. The decision? Not so much. On the field, the Raiders looked lifeless in Monday night’s loss to the Detroit Lions, a 12-point defeat that easily could have been a 32-point rout. Organizationally, the franchise – 9-16 under McDaniels – is the latest to learn that the ‘Patriot Way,’ with rare exception, can’t viably be transplanted out of New England.
Davis apparently recognized this and opted not to wait before performing a hard reset. But, enabled to get his next coaching search underway, is he in position to effectively recruit the caliber of leaders he’ll need to end a Super Bowl drought that will reach 40 years in January?
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Let’s catalog the assets and liabilities on Davis’ balance sheet as prospective HC and GM candidates assess whether they can lead a desert-based organization out of its football wilderness.
Quarterback situation
How to describe this …
Unsettled? Redeemable? Flexible?
You have to wonder what Davis really thought about Derek Carr’s unceremonious ouster late last season, particularly given he’s still demonstrably better than anyone currently on the Raiders’ depth chart. Whether he’s hurt or merely a system quarterback whose limitations were on full display Monday or both, Jimmy Garoppolo – like Carr, a second-round pick in 2014 – has regressed the position. His erstwhile backup, fellow former Patriot Brian Hoyer, last won a game in 2016 and has lost his past 13 starts. He has value as a player-coach – which is to say the 38-year-old can be a mentor and teach a playbook, but he certainly can’t execute one at this juncture.
Rounding out the group is fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell, who was stellar in preseason after a solid career at Purdue. He played decently while filling in for injured Garoppolo in Week 4, keeping the Silver and Black competitive in a 24-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers despite being sacked six times by former Raider Khalil Mack.
Moving forward? The Raiders (3-5) are tied for 13th place in the AFC. While only a game-and-a-half out of a wild-card spot, they’re only one win ahead of the Patriots, who own the conference’s worst record. Still, experienced as Jimmy G. is, his career-worst 78.1 passer rating and Monday’s dud performance are sending him to the bench with O’Connell set to take over. And the rookie deserves an extended look. Whether or not he’s a long-term starter – and he won’t even know for whom he’s ultimately auditioning – he’s likely the only one of these quarterbacks who could be on the roster in 2025. Garoppolo seems likely to stick around next year, assuming Davis doesn’t want to eat more than $28 million of dead salary-cap money, but would presumably revert to a backup role or serve as a bridge if the Raiders take another passer near the top of the 2024 draft.
Roster
Could be worse. Could most definitely be better.
DE Maxx Crosby and LT Kolton Miller are Pro Bowl-caliber players at crucial positions, both playing on their second contracts. All-Pro WR Davante Adams is elite … and also unhappy, seemingly for some time. He’ll be 31 in December and clearly doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild, so it seems the Raiders’ best bet is to get back to showcasing him and then dealing him in the offseason. Slot receiver Hunter Renfrow was a Pro Bowler under the previous regime but clearly was never a favorite of McDaniels. WR Jakobi Meyers, signed this year, has done a nice job thus far. RB Josh Jacobs was the NFL rushing champion in 2022 but felt unappreciated when he was franchised in the offseason. The pending free agent’s production has plummeted this year, though in-game circumstances are a huge component of that falloff.
O’Connell has had as much impact as any rookie, first-round DE Tyree Wilson and second-round TE Michael Mayer yet to make a splash. The specialists, K Daniel Carlson and P AJ Cole, are aces.
Otherwise? This is largely a collection of role players and/or imminently replaceable ones.
Salary cap
Per Over The Cap, the Raiders could have close to $75 million to spend in free agency in 2024 – assuming they roll most of this year’s $9 million surplus forward. That figure would tick up by about $2 million if Adams is traded, though offloading his subsequent base salaries would create significant flexibility in 2025 and ’26. Garoppolo probably won’t be much of a trade commodity next year, though that would also certainly help the bottom line. But the Raiders will get about $15 million back in 2025 assuming he’s gone by then.
2024 draft
Currently projected to select eighth overall next year, the Raiders would pick fairly early in each of the first five rounds. Adams cost them a first- and second-round pick in last year’s trade with the Green Bay Packers. He seems more likely to return a second-rounder (plus maybe a little extra) if dealt next year.
Outlook
The Raiders represent one of 32 NFL jobs, so certainly there will be those eager to take the wheel even if this ship is seemingly rudderless all too often. Davis tried to get the organization in lockstep by jointly hiring McDaniels and Ziegler. Obviously, that didn’t work. Next time around, Davis might be better off bringing in an experienced executive with solid personnel chops to get the roster and salary cap in order while allowing that person to either opt for an experienced coach or go with an up-and-comer who could grow with what seems likely to soon be a much younger team.
The next Super Bowl may not be right around the corner, but a “Commitment To Excellence” – and the runway that would require – could be enticing to the next leadership group.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.