Let’s remember our history before we go crazy and flip out over the debut College Football Playoff rankings.
In eight of the nine previous seasons of the postseason format, 15 of the 32 teams listed in the top four of the debut rankings did not make the playoff semifinals. The one exception is the 2020 season, when the coronavirus pandemic pushed the first rankings to Nov. 24 and the top remained the same through selection day on Dec. 20.
Let’s remember the first team to ever land at No. 1. Do you remember? That was Mississippi State, which opened 7-0 in 2014 behind quarterback Dak Prescott but was No. 7 in the final playoff rankings.
Don’t forget the team that started No. 1 last season. Have you forgotten? It was Tennessee, which held onto the top spot for just one week before dropping to No. 5 following a loss to Georgia.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Oregon passes Washington in playoff field
Things can and will change in November. For now, the top five of No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Washington only provides a glimpse into the selection committee’s thinking on how the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision compare.
Here are the winners and losers from the debut rankings:
WINNERS
Ohio State
Surprisingly, this is just the fourth week the Buckeyes have spent at No. 1 in the playoff rankings, following three weeks in 2019. The decision to put Ohio State on top is largely due to strength of schedule, and in particular two wins that are unmatched by other playoff contenders: No. 11 Penn State and No. 14 Notre Dame. That was enough to offset any gap in game control; the Buckeyes have struggled at times putting teams away, including in last weekend’s win against Wisconsin.
Michigan
There was some thought heading into Tuesday night that Michigan could land as low as No. 5, last among the unbeaten teams in the Power Five. At the very least, there was an argument for placing the Wolverines at No. 4 as a reflection on the team’s weaker strength of schedule compared to Ohio State, Georgia and Florida State. That they’ve landed at No. 3 means the committee acknowledges the weak résumé but still agrees on this: Michigan has played like a dominant team regardless of who’s on the other sideline.
Even better for Michigan was the way selection committee chairman and North Carolina State athletics director Boo Corrigan said the group considered the program’s sign-stealing scandal, which has threatened to engulf Jim Harbaugh and the broader season. To be exact, the group didn’t really consider the situation at all in regards to the Wolverines, said Corrigan.
‘As we went through it, that wasn’t really part of any of the discussion that occurred during our time together,’ he said on ESPN.
‘We really view it as an NCAA issue, not a CFP issue. At this point, as we’re looking at this, we need to get not only the top four teams but the top 25 teams right.’
The Pac-12
In a bittersweet twist in the league’s final season of existence, the Pac-12 was recognized by the committee as the deepest league in the FBS. The conference has six ranked teams: No. 5 Washington, No. 6 Oregon, No. 16 Oregon State, No. 18 Utah, No. 19 UCLA and No. 20 Southern California. That half the league’s makeup is in the playoff rankings could have the impact of giving the Pac-12 champion and even the runner-up some major credibility in the eyes of the selection committee.
LOSERS
Penn State
Penn State is being docked for a relatively weak list of wins, which includes no teams in the debut playoff rankings and just two teams, West Virginia and Iowa, currently with a winning record. While the Nittany Lions can easily land in the top four by running the table from here — that would include a win against Michigan and another solid win in the Big Ten championship game — there’s also the inverse to consider: PSU could be sent hurtling down the rankings with a loss to the Wolverines on Nov. 11.
Air Force
No. 25 Air Force comes in second among Group of Five teams, one spot behind No. 24 Tulane, despite the fact the Green Wave has something the Falcons do not: a loss. As an argument, Tulane has three wins against FBS opponents with a non-losing record and a solid loss to No. 10 Mississippi. Air Force has time and opportunity to leap ahead with games against UNLV, Boise State and the potential Mountain West championship game. But one thing the committee might be saying by putting Tulane ahead is that the American is a better league than the Mountain West, meaning the Green Wave should keep the Falcons at bay for the rest of the season by winning out.