Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is inching closer to deciding to run for Senate, and her expected candidacy has frozen the Republican field in the state as other Senate hopefuls wait for her decision.
Lake, a former local television anchor who falsely claims that she won her 2022 race for Arizona governor, is considered the most formidable opponent in a Republican primary, and at least three Republican candidates also sizing up the race are waiting for her to make a decision before they decide to run, according to three people familiar with the situation who, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly.
Lake is eyeing a June timeline for announcing her plans, a person familiar with her thinking told The Post last week.
She enjoys the highest favorability ratings among Republican primary voters of five potential GOP candidates, followed by former GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, according to a private poll, portions of which were obtained by The Washington Post, that is viewed by Republican strategists as an accurate snapshot of the mood of the GOP electorate. Both candidates were endorsed by former president Donald Trump in their earlier bids.
Two other conservatives who did not draw Trump’s backing during last year’s statewide midterm elections — solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon and developer Karrin Taylor Robson — trailed significantly behind the harder-right rivals, the polling showed.
Lake’s popularity with Republican voters in this newly competitive state could jeopardize Republican efforts to flip a Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema, the former Democrat who became an independent in December. Lake’s continued denial of Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential win probably contributed to her losing the support of moderate Republicans last year, delivering the governor’s seat to a Democrat.
There is deep concern about Lake’s viability in a general election, national Republican operatives said, given her recent statewide loss, continued focus on false election fraud claims and her unfavorable ratings in a recent public general election poll conducted by the polling firm OH Predictive Insights.
“Every time we throw one of these races away it puts enormous pressure on the other races on the map,” said Scott Jennings, a GOP political consultant and former political aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). “You have direct empirical evidence that the people of Arizona would like a different choice.”
In 2022, several Senate and gubernatorial candidates more closely aligned with the Trump wing of the party, including Lake and Masters, lost their races, prompting national Republicans to vow to take a more muscular approach to intervening in GOP primaries in 2024 on behalf of candidates who appeal to the center.
Lake — who is still waging a legal battle, which was rejected by an Arizona appeals court on Thursday, to reverse her gubernatorial loss — alienated moderate “McCain Republicans” in the state during her run, with video circulating of her telling fans of the late Republican senator John McCain to “get the hell out” of one event.
But in Arizona, more moderate candidates like Taylor Robson appear to still have limited appeal to Republican primary voters. Officials from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, including executive director Jason Thielman, met with Lake earlier this month at her request to discuss her potential race, a sign the group is taking her seriously as a candidate. NRSC officials met with Mark Lamb, the sheriff of Pinal County, south of Phoenix, who makes frequent appearances on conservative media, in the past few weeks as well, two people familiar with the meeting said. Lamb told The Post on Saturday that any potential announcement could come within weeks.
Lake’s standing with most GOP voters in the state remains strong and could shut out other Republicans from entering the race should she get in. Some potential candidates are also waiting to see if the NRSC or the Senate Leadership Fund — a PAC associated with McConnell that spent nearly $300 million in 2022 — commit to intervening in a GOP primary, which could upend the potential field. But in a Fox News interview on Thursday, McConnell did not list Arizona among the four Senate races he called “extremely important” and where he is trying to recruit “electable” candidates to run. A spokesperson for the Senate Leadership Fund declined to comment on the race.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who leads the NRSC, declined to express any enthusiasm about Lake in a brief interview on Wednesday, saying only it was early in the race and that many candidates are showing interest in running.
“Well, we’ve got a lot of candidates interested in Arizona at the moment,” Daines said, when asked if Lake would be a good candidate. “So that’ll be up to the people in Arizona to decide. It’s very early at this point.”
The private poll conducted by Data Orbital, an Arizona-based conservative polling firm, shows Lake beating four other potential GOP candidates in head-to-head matchups in a primary. But there is fear among national Republicans that voters could reject her in a general election. If Sinema decides to run for reelection, it would be a three-way race, with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) already running as a Democrat — a scenario that would help Republicans. But Daines conceded it’s too early to know whether Republicans will face a three-way or two-way general election in 2024.
Lake and her team are familiar with the private primary poll, which has not been previously reported and is circulating among potential candidates. Aside from her meeting with the NRSC, Lake is talking with consultants and some Republican senators about a potential run. Members of Trump’s team have offered her encouragement, a person familiar with discussions told The Post.
“Kari Lake isn’t going anywhere,” adviser Caroline Wren told The Post. “She’s an unstoppable force in the Republican Party and will continue to champion America First policies in Arizona and across the nation.”
Some operatives privately remain skeptical that Lake, who is still publicly insisting she won the governor’s race, will run for Senate. She could serve as a surrogate for Trump’s presidential campaign and continue to build a national brand and raise funds for her PAC without running for Senate. She recently appeared before packed crowds in Iowa, her home state, where she tested the national potency of her election-denying message. She is also scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, a forum for Republicans with national ambitions, in March.
But on Wednesday, Lake’s top aides mocked Taylor Robson, who spoke at a sparsely attended gathering of Republicans, contrasting the small crowd with the legions of fans who have shown up to hear Lake speak. “There’s a chance that these two face off in *another* GOP Primary,” her aide Colton Duncan wrote on Twitter. “Where’s your money at?”
The poking at Taylor Robson, who lost to Lake in the 2020 gubernatorial primary by 5 percentage points, shows Lake’s concern with a possible rematch, a former Taylor Robson campaign aide said.
In the meantime, Masters continues to weigh a run, talking to potential donors.
Abe Hamadeh, who remains close to Lake and who lost his 2022 race for attorney general by fewer than 300 votes, is also weighing entering the Senate race. He has met in recent weeks with national fundraisers, a person familiar with his activities said, and supporters recently formed a super PAC. Hamadeh is also co-hosting an upcoming fundraiser in Arizona for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and is speaking at CPAC.
Taylor Robson has kept the door open to a possible run, telling The Post last month the state deserved “much better representation” than what it’s getting from its two current senators.
“I am keeping my options open and deciding how I can best serve the people of Arizona,” she said in a statement at the time.